Why is it so difficult to outperform the random walk? An application of the Meese-Rogoff puzzle to stock prices

Imad Ahmed Moosa, John Jude Vaz

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    4 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Some economists suggest that the Meese-Rogoff puzzle is equally applicable to the stock market, in the sense that no model of stock prices can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting. We argue that this is not a puzzle and that we should expect nothing, but this result if forecasting accuracy is measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) and similar metrics that take into account the magnitude of the forecasting error only. We demonstrate by using two models for dividend-paying and nondividend-paying stocks that as price volatility rises, the RMSE of the random walk rises, but the RMSE of the model rises even more rapidly, making it unlikely for the model to outperform the random walk.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)398 - 407
    Number of pages10
    JournalApplied Economics
    Volume47
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2015

    Cite this

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    abstract = "Some economists suggest that the Meese-Rogoff puzzle is equally applicable to the stock market, in the sense that no model of stock prices can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting. We argue that this is not a puzzle and that we should expect nothing, but this result if forecasting accuracy is measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) and similar metrics that take into account the magnitude of the forecasting error only. We demonstrate by using two models for dividend-paying and nondividend-paying stocks that as price volatility rises, the RMSE of the random walk rises, but the RMSE of the model rises even more rapidly, making it unlikely for the model to outperform the random walk.",
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    Why is it so difficult to outperform the random walk? An application of the Meese-Rogoff puzzle to stock prices. / Moosa, Imad Ahmed; Vaz, John Jude.

    In: Applied Economics, Vol. 47, No. 4, 2015, p. 398 - 407.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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