When are extreme daily returns not lottery? At earnings announcements!

Hung T. Nguyen, Cameron Truong

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using a sample of U.S. stocks over the period 1973–2015, we find that quarterly earnings announcements account for more than 18% of the total maximum daily returns in the top MAX portfolio. Maximum daily returns as triggered by earnings announcements do not entail lower future returns. Both portfolio and regression analyses show that the MAX phenomenon completely disappears when conditioning MAX returns on earnings announcements. We further show that earnings announcement MAX returns do not indicate a probability of future large short-term upward returns. Excluding earnings announcement MAX returns in constructing the lottery demand factor results in not only a larger lottery demand premium but also superior factor model performance.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)92-116
Number of pages25
JournalJournal of Financial Markets
Volume92
Issue number116
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2018

Keywords

  • Cross-sectional return predictability
  • Earnings announcements
  • Extreme returns
  • Lottery-like payoffs

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