Welfare gains of the poor: an endogenous Bayesian approach with spatial random effects

Andrés Ramírez Hassan, Santiago Montoya Blandón

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We introduce a Bayesian instrumental variable procedure with spatial random effects that handles endogeneity, and spatial dependence with unobserved heterogeneity. We find through a limited Monte Carlo experiment that our proposal works well in terms of point estimates and prediction. We apply our method to analyze the welfare effects generated by a process of electricity tariff unification on the poorest households. In particular, we deduce an Equivalent Variation measure where there is a budget constraint for a two-tiered pricing scheme, and find that 10% of the poorest municipalities attained welfare gains above 2% of their initial income.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)301-318
Number of pages18
JournalEconometric Reviews
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2019
Externally publishedYes


  • Bayesian estimation
  • endogeneity
  • instruments
  • simultaneous equations
  • spatial random effects
  • welfare analysis

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