Validating a detailed, dynamic CGE model of the USA*

Peter Dixon, Maureen Rimmer

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

    12 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models can be used to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities a?? industries and thereby provide baselines from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this article, we assess a CGE forecasting method that has been applied in policy analyses in the USA and Australia. Using data available up to 1998, we apply the method with the USAGE model to generate a??genuine forecastsa?? for 500 US commodities a?? industries for the period 1998a??2005. We then compare these forecasts with actual outcomes and with alternate forecasts derived as extrapolated trends from 1992 to 1998.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)22 - 34
    Number of pages13
    JournalEconomic Record
    Volume86
    Issue numbers1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2010

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