Understanding public transport user behavior adjustment if public transport ceases - A qualitative study

The mode shift from public transport (PT) to private car when PT ceases causes an increase in the number of car trips on the road network that leads to a rise in the level of traffic congestion. To manage and propose measures to cope with this issue, it is necessary to assess the share of PT users who would shift to car and be aware of the flexibility of PT users to change their travel behavior if PT is no longer available. The share of PT users who would shift is also an important parameter used for assessing traffic congestion relief associated with PT. This study seeks to uncover factors influencing the mode shift to car of PT users adopting a qualitative study. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 30 PT users from Melbourne, Australia. Content analysis was performed using Nvivo10 software. Grounded theory was used to derive categories and subcategories of behavioral responses. Factors affecting the mode shift to car if PT ceases in the short term were classified in three main themes with several subcategories: individual-specific factors, context-specific factors and journey-specific factors. In the long term, the analysis reveals that only context-specific factors have an influence on mode shift. The findings show that the interplay between car access, low travel time, low travel cost, trip importance, non-central business district (CBD) trips, weather, flexibility and accessibility to PT stations are the most important factors in favor of choosing a car if PT ceases in the short term. The removal of PT in the short term acts only to increase traffic congestion due to the mode shift to car. However, in the long term, removing PT could result in an impact on land use, leading to individuals changing their residential and workplace location.