Trends in incidence of total or type 2 diabetes

systematic review

Dianna J. Magliano, Rakibul M. Islam, Elizabeth L.M. Barr, Edward W. Gregg, Meda E. Pavkov, Jessica L. Harding, Maryam Tabesh, Digsu N. Koye, Jonathan E. Shaw

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To assess what proportions of studies reported increasing, stable, or declining trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes. DESIGN: Systematic review of studies reporting trends of diabetes incidence in adults from 1980 to 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant publications. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies of open population based cohorts, diabetes registries, and administrative and health insurance databases on secular trends in the incidence of total diabetes or type 2 diabetes in adults were included. Poisson regression was used to model data by age group and year. RESULTS: Among the 22 833 screened abstracts, 47 studies were included, providing data on 121 separate sex specific or ethnicity specific populations; 42 (89%) of the included studies reported on diagnosed diabetes. In 1960-89, 36% (8/22) of the populations studied had increasing trends in incidence of diabetes, 55% (12/22) had stable trends, and 9% (2/22) had decreasing trends. In 1990-2005, diabetes incidence increased in 66% (33/50) of populations, was stable in 32% (16/50), and decreased in 2% (1/50). In 2006-14, increasing trends were reported in only 33% (11/33) of populations, whereas 30% (10/33) and 36% (12/33) had stable or declining incidence, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has continued to rise in only a minority of populations studied since 2006, with over a third of populations having a fall in incidence in this time period. Preventive strategies could have contributed to the fall in diabetes incidence in recent years. Data are limited in low and middle income countries, where trends in diabetes incidence could be different. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Prospero CRD42018092287.

Original languageEnglish
Article numberl5003
Number of pages12
JournalBMJ: British Medical Journal
Volume366
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 Sep 2019

Cite this

Magliano, Dianna J. ; Islam, Rakibul M. ; Barr, Elizabeth L.M. ; Gregg, Edward W. ; Pavkov, Meda E. ; Harding, Jessica L. ; Tabesh, Maryam ; Koye, Digsu N. ; Shaw, Jonathan E. / Trends in incidence of total or type 2 diabetes : systematic review. In: BMJ: British Medical Journal. 2019 ; Vol. 366.
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title = "Trends in incidence of total or type 2 diabetes: systematic review",
abstract = "OBJECTIVE: To assess what proportions of studies reported increasing, stable, or declining trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes. DESIGN: Systematic review of studies reporting trends of diabetes incidence in adults from 1980 to 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant publications. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies of open population based cohorts, diabetes registries, and administrative and health insurance databases on secular trends in the incidence of total diabetes or type 2 diabetes in adults were included. Poisson regression was used to model data by age group and year. RESULTS: Among the 22 833 screened abstracts, 47 studies were included, providing data on 121 separate sex specific or ethnicity specific populations; 42 (89{\%}) of the included studies reported on diagnosed diabetes. In 1960-89, 36{\%} (8/22) of the populations studied had increasing trends in incidence of diabetes, 55{\%} (12/22) had stable trends, and 9{\%} (2/22) had decreasing trends. In 1990-2005, diabetes incidence increased in 66{\%} (33/50) of populations, was stable in 32{\%} (16/50), and decreased in 2{\%} (1/50). In 2006-14, increasing trends were reported in only 33{\%} (11/33) of populations, whereas 30{\%} (10/33) and 36{\%} (12/33) had stable or declining incidence, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has continued to rise in only a minority of populations studied since 2006, with over a third of populations having a fall in incidence in this time period. Preventive strategies could have contributed to the fall in diabetes incidence in recent years. Data are limited in low and middle income countries, where trends in diabetes incidence could be different. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Prospero CRD42018092287.",
author = "Magliano, {Dianna J.} and Islam, {Rakibul M.} and Barr, {Elizabeth L.M.} and Gregg, {Edward W.} and Pavkov, {Meda E.} and Harding, {Jessica L.} and Maryam Tabesh and Koye, {Digsu N.} and Shaw, {Jonathan E.}",
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Trends in incidence of total or type 2 diabetes : systematic review. / Magliano, Dianna J.; Islam, Rakibul M.; Barr, Elizabeth L.M.; Gregg, Edward W.; Pavkov, Meda E.; Harding, Jessica L.; Tabesh, Maryam; Koye, Digsu N.; Shaw, Jonathan E.

In: BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol. 366, l5003, 11.09.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Trends in incidence of total or type 2 diabetes

T2 - systematic review

AU - Magliano, Dianna J.

AU - Islam, Rakibul M.

AU - Barr, Elizabeth L.M.

AU - Gregg, Edward W.

AU - Pavkov, Meda E.

AU - Harding, Jessica L.

AU - Tabesh, Maryam

AU - Koye, Digsu N.

AU - Shaw, Jonathan E.

PY - 2019/9/11

Y1 - 2019/9/11

N2 - OBJECTIVE: To assess what proportions of studies reported increasing, stable, or declining trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes. DESIGN: Systematic review of studies reporting trends of diabetes incidence in adults from 1980 to 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant publications. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies of open population based cohorts, diabetes registries, and administrative and health insurance databases on secular trends in the incidence of total diabetes or type 2 diabetes in adults were included. Poisson regression was used to model data by age group and year. RESULTS: Among the 22 833 screened abstracts, 47 studies were included, providing data on 121 separate sex specific or ethnicity specific populations; 42 (89%) of the included studies reported on diagnosed diabetes. In 1960-89, 36% (8/22) of the populations studied had increasing trends in incidence of diabetes, 55% (12/22) had stable trends, and 9% (2/22) had decreasing trends. In 1990-2005, diabetes incidence increased in 66% (33/50) of populations, was stable in 32% (16/50), and decreased in 2% (1/50). In 2006-14, increasing trends were reported in only 33% (11/33) of populations, whereas 30% (10/33) and 36% (12/33) had stable or declining incidence, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has continued to rise in only a minority of populations studied since 2006, with over a third of populations having a fall in incidence in this time period. Preventive strategies could have contributed to the fall in diabetes incidence in recent years. Data are limited in low and middle income countries, where trends in diabetes incidence could be different. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Prospero CRD42018092287.

AB - OBJECTIVE: To assess what proportions of studies reported increasing, stable, or declining trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes. DESIGN: Systematic review of studies reporting trends of diabetes incidence in adults from 1980 to 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant publications. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies of open population based cohorts, diabetes registries, and administrative and health insurance databases on secular trends in the incidence of total diabetes or type 2 diabetes in adults were included. Poisson regression was used to model data by age group and year. RESULTS: Among the 22 833 screened abstracts, 47 studies were included, providing data on 121 separate sex specific or ethnicity specific populations; 42 (89%) of the included studies reported on diagnosed diabetes. In 1960-89, 36% (8/22) of the populations studied had increasing trends in incidence of diabetes, 55% (12/22) had stable trends, and 9% (2/22) had decreasing trends. In 1990-2005, diabetes incidence increased in 66% (33/50) of populations, was stable in 32% (16/50), and decreased in 2% (1/50). In 2006-14, increasing trends were reported in only 33% (11/33) of populations, whereas 30% (10/33) and 36% (12/33) had stable or declining incidence, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has continued to rise in only a minority of populations studied since 2006, with over a third of populations having a fall in incidence in this time period. Preventive strategies could have contributed to the fall in diabetes incidence in recent years. Data are limited in low and middle income countries, where trends in diabetes incidence could be different. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Prospero CRD42018092287.

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U2 - 10.1136/bmj.l5003

DO - 10.1136/bmj.l5003

M3 - Article

VL - 366

JO - BMJ: British Medical Journal

JF - BMJ: British Medical Journal

SN - 0959-535X

M1 - l5003

ER -