Trends and projections of storm formation in coupled climate models

C S Frederiksen; J S Frederiksen; J M Sisson; S L Osbrough

doi:10.21914/anziamj.v56i0.9406

Trends and projections of storm formation in coupled climate models

C S Frederiksen, J S Frederiksen, J M Sisson, S L Osbrough

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference Paper › Research

Abstract

Changes in the characteristics of southern hemisphere storms, in all seasons, during the second half of the twentieth century, were related to changes in the annual cycle of Southern Hemisphere baroclinic instability. In particular, significant negative trends in baroclinic instability were found in a mid-latitude zonal band in all months; a similar band of significant positive trends occurs further poleward. Corresponding to this decrease\ increase in baroclinic instability there was a decrease\increase in storm formation at these latitudes, and in some cases a preference for storm formation further poleward than normal. These changes in the weather systems are consistent with the observed negative trends in southern Australian rainfall. Future projections of trends in baroclinicity, under the RCP8.5 scenario, show a similar pattern of negative and positive trends during the second half of the twenty first century. The impact of these trends is continuing decreased and negative trends in southern Australian rainfall.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference
Editors	Markus Hegland, Jason Sharples
Place of Publication	Canberra ACT Australia
Publisher	Cambridge University Press
Pages	C279-C295
Number of pages	17
Volume	56
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.21914/anziamj.v56i0.9406
Publication status	Published - 2014
Externally published	Yes
Event	Computational Techniques and Applications Conference 2014 - Australian National University, Canberra, Australia Duration: 1 Dec 2014 → 3 Dec 2014 Conference number: 17th http://maths.anu.edu.au/events/ctac-2014

Publication series

Name	ANZIAM Journal
Publisher	Cambridge University Press
Volume	56
ISSN (Print)	1446-1811
ISSN (Electronic)	1446-8735

Conference

Conference	Computational Techniques and Applications Conference 2014
Abbreviated title	CTAC 2014
Country/Territory	Australia
City	Canberra
Period	1/12/14 → 3/12/14
Internet address	http://maths.anu.edu.au/events/ctac-2014

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.21914/anziamj.v56i0.9406

117364952-oaFinal published version, 1.34 MB

Cite this

Frederiksen, C. S., Frederiksen, J. S., Sisson, J. M., & Osbrough, S. L. (2014). Trends and projections of storm formation in coupled climate models. In M. Hegland, & J. Sharples (Eds.), Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference (Vol. 56, pp. C279-C295). (ANZIAM Journal; Vol. 56). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.21914/anziamj.v56i0.9406

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title = "Trends and projections of storm formation in coupled climate models",

abstract = "Changes in the characteristics of southern hemisphere storms, in all seasons, during the second half of the twentieth century, were related to changes in the annual cycle of Southern Hemisphere baroclinic instability. In particular, significant negative trends in baroclinic instability were found in a mid-latitude zonal band in all months; a similar band of significant positive trends occurs further poleward. Corresponding to this decrease\ increase in baroclinic instability there was a decrease\increase in storm formation at these latitudes, and in some cases a preference for storm formation further poleward than normal. These changes in the weather systems are consistent with the observed negative trends in southern Australian rainfall. Future projections of trends in baroclinicity, under the RCP8.5 scenario, show a similar pattern of negative and positive trends during the second half of the twenty first century. The impact of these trends is continuing decreased and negative trends in southern Australian rainfall.",

author = "Frederiksen, {C S} and Frederiksen, {J S} and Sisson, {J M} and Osbrough, {S L}",

year = "2014",

doi = "10.21914/anziamj.v56i0.9406",

language = "English",

volume = "56",

series = "ANZIAM Journal",

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pages = "C279--C295",

editor = "Hegland, {Markus } and Sharples, {Jason }",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference",

address = "United Kingdom",

note = "Computational Techniques and Applications Conference 2014, CTAC 2014 ; Conference date: 01-12-2014 Through 03-12-2014",

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Frederiksen, CS, Frederiksen, JS, Sisson, JM & Osbrough, SL 2014, Trends and projections of storm formation in coupled climate models. in M Hegland & J Sharples (eds), Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference. vol. 56, ANZIAM Journal, vol. 56, Cambridge University Press, Canberra ACT Australia, pp. C279-C295, Computational Techniques and Applications Conference 2014, Canberra, Australia, 1/12/14. https://doi.org/10.21914/anziamj.v56i0.9406

Trends and projections of storm formation in coupled climate models. / Frederiksen, C S; Frederiksen, J S; Sisson, J M et al.
Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference. ed. / Markus Hegland; Jason Sharples. Vol. 56 Canberra ACT Australia: Cambridge University Press, 2014. p. C279-C295 (ANZIAM Journal; Vol. 56).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference Paper › Research

TY - GEN

T1 - Trends and projections of storm formation in coupled climate models

AU - Frederiksen, C S

AU - Frederiksen, J S

AU - Sisson, J M

AU - Osbrough, S L

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PY - 2014

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N2 - Changes in the characteristics of southern hemisphere storms, in all seasons, during the second half of the twentieth century, were related to changes in the annual cycle of Southern Hemisphere baroclinic instability. In particular, significant negative trends in baroclinic instability were found in a mid-latitude zonal band in all months; a similar band of significant positive trends occurs further poleward. Corresponding to this decrease\ increase in baroclinic instability there was a decrease\increase in storm formation at these latitudes, and in some cases a preference for storm formation further poleward than normal. These changes in the weather systems are consistent with the observed negative trends in southern Australian rainfall. Future projections of trends in baroclinicity, under the RCP8.5 scenario, show a similar pattern of negative and positive trends during the second half of the twenty first century. The impact of these trends is continuing decreased and negative trends in southern Australian rainfall.

AB - Changes in the characteristics of southern hemisphere storms, in all seasons, during the second half of the twentieth century, were related to changes in the annual cycle of Southern Hemisphere baroclinic instability. In particular, significant negative trends in baroclinic instability were found in a mid-latitude zonal band in all months; a similar band of significant positive trends occurs further poleward. Corresponding to this decrease\ increase in baroclinic instability there was a decrease\increase in storm formation at these latitudes, and in some cases a preference for storm formation further poleward than normal. These changes in the weather systems are consistent with the observed negative trends in southern Australian rainfall. Future projections of trends in baroclinicity, under the RCP8.5 scenario, show a similar pattern of negative and positive trends during the second half of the twenty first century. The impact of these trends is continuing decreased and negative trends in southern Australian rainfall.

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BT - Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference

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Frederiksen CS, Frederiksen JS, Sisson JM, Osbrough SL. Trends and projections of storm formation in coupled climate models. In Hegland M, Sharples J, editors, Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference. Vol. 56. Canberra ACT Australia: Cambridge University Press. 2014. p. C279-C295. (ANZIAM Journal). doi: 10.21914/anziamj.v56i0.9406