Trends and projections of storm formation in coupled climate models

C S Frederiksen, J S Frederiksen, J M Sisson, S L Osbrough

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperResearch

Abstract

Changes in the characteristics of southern hemisphere storms, in all seasons, during the second half of the twentieth century, were related to changes in the annual cycle of Southern Hemisphere baroclinic instability. In particular, significant negative trends in baroclinic instability were found in a mid-latitude zonal band in all months; a similar band of significant positive trends occurs further poleward. Corresponding to this decrease\ increase in baroclinic instability there was a decrease\increase in storm formation at these latitudes, and in some cases a preference for storm formation further poleward than normal. These changes in the weather systems are consistent with the observed negative trends in southern Australian rainfall. Future projections of trends in baroclinicity, under the RCP8.5 scenario, show a similar pattern of negative and positive trends during the second half of the twenty first century. The impact of these trends is continuing decreased and negative trends in southern Australian rainfall.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 17th Biennial Computational Techniques and Applications Conference
EditorsMarkus Hegland, Jason Sharples
Place of PublicationCanberra ACT Australia
PublisherCambridge University Press
PagesC279-C295
Number of pages17
Volume56
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Externally publishedYes
EventComputational Techniques and Applications Conference 2014 - Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
Duration: 1 Dec 20143 Dec 2014
Conference number: 17th
http://maths.anu.edu.au/events/ctac-2014

Publication series

NameANZIAM Journal
PublisherCambridge University Press
Volume56
ISSN (Print)1446-1811
ISSN (Electronic)1446-8735

Conference

ConferenceComputational Techniques and Applications Conference 2014
Abbreviated titleCTAC 2014
CountryAustralia
CityCanberra
Period1/12/143/12/14
Internet address

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