Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Benjamin J. Henley, Andrew D. King

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38 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) will regulate the rate at which mean temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent initialized decadal predictions suggestive of a turnaround in the IPO, a sustained period of rapid temperature rise might be underway. In that case, the world will reach the 1.5°C level of warming several years sooner than if the negative IPO phase persists.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4256-4262
Number of pages7
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume44
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 May 2017
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • 1.5°C
  • climate change
  • global temperature
  • IPO
  • Paris target
  • PDO

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