Towards accurate predictions and causal 'What-if' analyses for planning and policy-making: a case study in Emergency Medical Services demand

Kasun Bandara, Christoph Bergmeir, Sam Campbell, Deborah Scott, Dan Lubman

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) demand load has become a considerable burden for many government authorities, and EMS demand is often an early indicator for stress in communities, a warning sign of emerging problems. In this paper, we introduce Deep Planning and Policy Making Net (DeepPPMNet), a Long Short-Term Memory network based, global forecasting and inference framework to forecast the EMS demand, analyse causal relationships, and perform 'what-if' analyses for policy-making across multiple local government areas. Unless traditional univariate forecasting techniques, the proposed method follows the global forecasting methodology, where a model is trained across all the available EMS demand time series to exploit the potential cross-series information available. DeepPPMNet also uses seasonal decomposition techniques, incorporated in two different training paradigms into the framework, to suit various characteristics of the EMS related time series data. We then explore causal relationships using the notion of Granger Causality, where the global forecasting framework enables us to perform 'what-if' analyses that could be used for the national policy-making process. We empirically evaluate our method, using a set of EMS datasets related to alcohol, drug use and self-harm in Australia. The proposed framework is able to outperform many state-of-the-art techniques and achieve competitive results in terms of forecasting accuracy. We finally illustrate its use for policy-making in an example regarding alcohol outlet licenses.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2020 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN), 2020 Conference Proceedings2020 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, IJCNN 2020 - Proceedings
EditorsAsim Roy
Place of PublicationPiscataway NJ USA
PublisherIEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9781728169262
ISBN (Print)9781728169279
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020
EventIEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Networks 2020 - Virtual, Glasgow, United Kingdom
Duration: 19 Jul 202024 Jul 2020
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/conhome/9200848/proceeding (Proceedings)
https://wcci2020.org/ijcnn-sessions/ (Website)

Conference

ConferenceIEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Networks 2020
Abbreviated titleIJCNN 2020
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityVirtual, Glasgow
Period19/07/2024/07/20
Internet address

Keywords

  • Demand Forecasting
  • Emergency Medical Services
  • LSTM
  • Time Series

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