Time-dependent reliability of ageing structures: an approximate approach

Cao Wang, Quanwang Li, Bruce R. Ellingwood

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

34 Citations (Scopus)


Concrete structures may deteriorate over time due to aggressive service environments, leading to a reduction in their strengths, stiffnesses and reliabilities. In general, the assessment of time-dependent reliability of ageing structures must consider uncertainties in structural deterioration as well as non-stationarities in the structural load processes. This paper develops an approximate method for assessing the impact of structural deterioration and non-stationary live loads on structures, which requires only low-dimensional integration and reduces the cost of assessing time-dependent reliability over a service life extending to 50 years significantly. This approximate method is demonstrated through several examples. The importance of non-stationarities in the resistance and load processes on time-dependent reliability is illustrated and the accuracy of the method is confirmed in several cases utilising Monte Carlo simulation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1566-1572
Number of pages7
JournalStructure and Infrastructure Engineering
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2016
Externally publishedYes


  • deterioration
  • loads
  • probability
  • Reinforced concrete
  • structural engineering
  • time-dependent reliability

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