The response of a stochastically forced ENSO model to observed off-equatorial wind stress forcing

Shayne McGregor, Neil John Holbrook, Scott Brendan Power

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study investigates the response of a stochastically forced coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the equatorial Pacific to off-equatorial wind stress anomaly forcing. The intermediate-complexity coupled ENSO model comprises a linear, first baroclinic mode, ocean shallow water model with a steady-state, two-pressure level (250 and 750 mb) atmospheric component that has been linearized about a state of rest on the B plane. Estimates of observed equatorial region stochastic forcing are calculated from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface winds for the period 1950-2006 using singular value decomposition. The stochastic forcing is applied to the model both with and without off-equatorial region wind stress anomalies (i.e., poleward of 12.5 latitude). It is found that the multiyear changes in the equatorial Pacific thermocline depth background state induced by off-equatorial forcing can affect the amplitude of modeled sea surface temperature anomalies by up to 1C. Moreover, off-equatorial wind stress anomalies increased the modeled amplitude of the two biggest El Nino events in the twentieth century (1982/83 and 1997/98) by more than 0.5C, resulting in a more realistic modeled response. These equatorial changes driven by off-equatorial region wind stress anomalies are highly predictable to two years in advance and may be useful as a physical basis to enhance multiyear probabilistic predictions of ENSO indices. (c) 2009 American Meteorological Society.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2512 - 2525
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume22
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009
Externally publishedYes

Cite this

McGregor, Shayne ; Holbrook, Neil John ; Power, Scott Brendan. / The response of a stochastically forced ENSO model to observed off-equatorial wind stress forcing. In: Journal of Climate. 2009 ; Vol. 22, No. 10. pp. 2512 - 2525.
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abstract = "This study investigates the response of a stochastically forced coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the equatorial Pacific to off-equatorial wind stress anomaly forcing. The intermediate-complexity coupled ENSO model comprises a linear, first baroclinic mode, ocean shallow water model with a steady-state, two-pressure level (250 and 750 mb) atmospheric component that has been linearized about a state of rest on the B plane. Estimates of observed equatorial region stochastic forcing are calculated from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface winds for the period 1950-2006 using singular value decomposition. The stochastic forcing is applied to the model both with and without off-equatorial region wind stress anomalies (i.e., poleward of 12.5 latitude). It is found that the multiyear changes in the equatorial Pacific thermocline depth background state induced by off-equatorial forcing can affect the amplitude of modeled sea surface temperature anomalies by up to 1C. Moreover, off-equatorial wind stress anomalies increased the modeled amplitude of the two biggest El Nino events in the twentieth century (1982/83 and 1997/98) by more than 0.5C, resulting in a more realistic modeled response. These equatorial changes driven by off-equatorial region wind stress anomalies are highly predictable to two years in advance and may be useful as a physical basis to enhance multiyear probabilistic predictions of ENSO indices. (c) 2009 American Meteorological Society.",
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The response of a stochastically forced ENSO model to observed off-equatorial wind stress forcing. / McGregor, Shayne; Holbrook, Neil John; Power, Scott Brendan.

In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, No. 10, 2009, p. 2512 - 2525.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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