The predictive value of production expectations in manufacturing industry

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Surveys of the production expectations in the manufacturing industry are collected monthly or quarterly in many OECD countries. The producers are asked about expected production over the next three or four months. This paper tests the predictive performance of production expectations in the manufacturing industry of eight OECD countries. Evidence indicates that: (1) survey expectations of production have a predictive value with respect to production; (2) in most cases the forecast horizon is more significant at 3 or 4 months compared to 2 or 5 months; (3) inflow of orders, order books, stocks of finished goods, etc. contain information to predict production for most countries which are not embodied in survey production expectations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)273-289
Number of pages17
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Issue number3-4
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 1993


  • Consistent co‐variance matrix
  • Forecast model of production in manufacturing
  • Length of forecast horizon
  • Prediction of production

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