The impact of geopolitical risk on tourism

Abebe Hailemariam, Kris Ivanovski

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review


In this paper, we examine the impact of geopolitical risk on the demand for tourism service export. Using structural VAR model and U.S. monthly data from January 1999 to August 2020, we find that geopolitical risk has a negative and significant impact on tourism service exports. Our results reveal that, in the long-run, a one-standard-deviation shock in geopolitical risk shock explains about 12.6% of the variations in tourism net service exports.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages7
JournalCurrent Issues in Tourism
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2021


  • Geopolitical risk
  • Structural VAR (SVAR)‌
  • Tourism
  • Tourism service export

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