The impact of economic growth in mortality modelling for selected OECD countries

Lydia Dutton, Athanasios A. Pantelous, Malgorzata Seklecka

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review


The health of a population is affected by social, environmental, and economic factors. Pension providers and consultants, insurance companies, government agencies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how the economic growth will impact on the life expectancy of their population. Therefore, changes in death rates may occur due to climate and economic changes. In this study, we extend a previous study into excess deaths as a result of climate change to also provide a comprehensive investigation of the impact of economic changes using annual female and male data for 5 developed OECD countries. We find that there is strong negative relationship between mortality index, and climate and economic proxies. This model shows to provide better fitting and forecasting results both for females and males, and for all countries studied.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)533-550
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2020


  • climate change (temperature)
  • economic change (GDP)
  • forecasting
  • longevity
  • mortality modelling

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