TY - JOUR
T1 - The Hospitalizations for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Conditions, Emergency Department Presentations and Economic Burden of Bushfires in Australia Between 2021 and 2030
T2 - A Modelling Study
AU - Ademi, Zanfina
AU - Zomer, Ella
AU - Marquina, Clara
AU - Lee, Peter
AU - Talic, Stella
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Liew, Danny
N1 - Funding Information:
The part of this modelling work was initially presented in the Climate Change and Australia's Health Systems: A Review of Literature, Policy and Practice. We have updated the inputs and results based on the contemporary evidence. Bragge P, Armstrong F, Bowen K, Burgess M, Cooke S, Lennox A, Liew D, Pattuwage L, Watts C, Capon T. Climate Change and Australia's Health Systems: A Review of Literature, Policy and Practice. Monash Sustainable Development Evidence Review Service, BehaviourWorks Australia, Monash University. Melbourne, October 2021. PL, and YG have nothing to declare; ZA, CM and ST declares funds from Amgen, outside of submitted work; EZ declares grants from Amgen, AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Shire, outside the submitted work; DL declares grants from Abbvie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Pfizer and Sanofi, and past participation in advisory boards and/or receipt of honoraria from Abbvie, Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Edwards Lifesciences, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi and Shire, outside the submitted work.
Funding Information:
PL, and YG have nothing to declare; ZA, CM and ST declares funds from Amgen, outside of submitted work; EZ declares grants from Amgen, AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Shire, outside the submitted work; DL declares grants from Abbvie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Pfizer and Sanofi, and past participation in advisory boards and/or receipt of honoraria from Abbvie, Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Edwards Lifesciences, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi and Shire, outside the submitted work.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2023/1
Y1 - 2023/1
N2 - The health and environmental impacts of bushfires results in substantial economic costs to society. The present analysis sought to estimate the burden of bushfires in Australia over 10 years from 2021 to 2030 inclusive. A dynamic model with yearly cycles was constructed to simulate follow-up of the entire Australian population from 2021 to 2030, capturing deaths and years of life lived. Estimated numbers of bushfire-related-deaths, costs of related-hospitalizations, and broader economic costs were derived from published sources. A 5% annual discount rate was applied to all costs incurred and life years lived from 2022 onwards. Over the 10 years from 2021 to 2030, the modelled analysis predicted that 2418 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2412 - 2422] lives would be lost to bushfires, as well as 8590 [95% CI 8573 - 8606] years of life lost (discounted). Healthcare costs arising from deaths for smoke-related conditions, hospitalizations amounted to AUD $110 million [95% CI 91-129 million] (discounted). The impact on gross domestic product (GDP) totaled AUD $17.2 billion. A hypothetical intervention that reduces the impact of bushfires by 10% would save $11 million in healthcare costs and $1.9 billion in GDP. The health and economic burden of bushfires in Australia looms large during 2021 and 2030. This underscores the importance of actions to mitigate bushfire risk. The findings are useful for the future design and delivery and help policy makers to make informed decisions about investment in strategies to reduce the incidence and severity of future bushfires.
AB - The health and environmental impacts of bushfires results in substantial economic costs to society. The present analysis sought to estimate the burden of bushfires in Australia over 10 years from 2021 to 2030 inclusive. A dynamic model with yearly cycles was constructed to simulate follow-up of the entire Australian population from 2021 to 2030, capturing deaths and years of life lived. Estimated numbers of bushfire-related-deaths, costs of related-hospitalizations, and broader economic costs were derived from published sources. A 5% annual discount rate was applied to all costs incurred and life years lived from 2022 onwards. Over the 10 years from 2021 to 2030, the modelled analysis predicted that 2418 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2412 - 2422] lives would be lost to bushfires, as well as 8590 [95% CI 8573 - 8606] years of life lost (discounted). Healthcare costs arising from deaths for smoke-related conditions, hospitalizations amounted to AUD $110 million [95% CI 91-129 million] (discounted). The impact on gross domestic product (GDP) totaled AUD $17.2 billion. A hypothetical intervention that reduces the impact of bushfires by 10% would save $11 million in healthcare costs and $1.9 billion in GDP. The health and economic burden of bushfires in Australia looms large during 2021 and 2030. This underscores the importance of actions to mitigate bushfire risk. The findings are useful for the future design and delivery and help policy makers to make informed decisions about investment in strategies to reduce the incidence and severity of future bushfires.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85140031829&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2022.101416
DO - 10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2022.101416
M3 - Review Article
C2 - 36152873
AN - SCOPUS:85140031829
SN - 0146-2806
VL - 48
JO - Current Problems in Cardiology
JF - Current Problems in Cardiology
IS - 1
M1 - 101416
ER -