The Extent of El Niño and La Niña Influence on Australian Rainfall

Peter van Rensch; Shayne McGregor; Ailie Gallant

doi:10.1029/2025GL118454

The Extent of El Niño and La Niña Influence on Australian Rainfall

School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where the central-east tropical Pacific is unusually warm (El Niño) or cold (La Niña), is known to influence Australian rainfall. Here, we detail the extent of ENSO's influence on Australian monthly rainfall distributions and clarify its many complexities. We show La Niña to be a long-lasting and wide-spread intensifier of Australian rainfall throughout its lifecycle, particularly on extreme monthly rainfall. The reduction of rainfall during El Niño is comparatively limited; confined mainly to El Niño's developing phase and the southeast and northeast of Australia. A further complexity shows El Niño can intensify monthly rainfall during its mature phase. Within these broader impacts of ENSO are strong spatial and temporal differences, such that the expected rainfall impacts may not be consistently felt at the local-scale. We propose methods to account for these complex climatic impacts at scales comparable to a river catchment scale.

Original language	English
Article number	e2025GL118454
Number of pages	10
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	53
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118454
Publication status	Published - 16 Jan 2026

Keywords

precipitation
Southern Oscillation
teleconnection

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10.1029/2025GL118454Licence: CC BY-NC

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title = "The Extent of El Ni{\~n}o and La Ni{\~n}a Influence on Australian Rainfall",

abstract = "El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where the central-east tropical Pacific is unusually warm (El Ni{\~n}o) or cold (La Ni{\~n}a), is known to influence Australian rainfall. Here, we detail the extent of ENSO's influence on Australian monthly rainfall distributions and clarify its many complexities. We show La Ni{\~n}a to be a long-lasting and wide-spread intensifier of Australian rainfall throughout its lifecycle, particularly on extreme monthly rainfall. The reduction of rainfall during El Ni{\~n}o is comparatively limited; confined mainly to El Ni{\~n}o's developing phase and the southeast and northeast of Australia. A further complexity shows El Ni{\~n}o can intensify monthly rainfall during its mature phase. Within these broader impacts of ENSO are strong spatial and temporal differences, such that the expected rainfall impacts may not be consistently felt at the local-scale. We propose methods to account for these complex climatic impacts at scales comparable to a river catchment scale.",

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AU - Gallant, Ailie

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N2 - El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where the central-east tropical Pacific is unusually warm (El Niño) or cold (La Niña), is known to influence Australian rainfall. Here, we detail the extent of ENSO's influence on Australian monthly rainfall distributions and clarify its many complexities. We show La Niña to be a long-lasting and wide-spread intensifier of Australian rainfall throughout its lifecycle, particularly on extreme monthly rainfall. The reduction of rainfall during El Niño is comparatively limited; confined mainly to El Niño's developing phase and the southeast and northeast of Australia. A further complexity shows El Niño can intensify monthly rainfall during its mature phase. Within these broader impacts of ENSO are strong spatial and temporal differences, such that the expected rainfall impacts may not be consistently felt at the local-scale. We propose methods to account for these complex climatic impacts at scales comparable to a river catchment scale.

AB - El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where the central-east tropical Pacific is unusually warm (El Niño) or cold (La Niña), is known to influence Australian rainfall. Here, we detail the extent of ENSO's influence on Australian monthly rainfall distributions and clarify its many complexities. We show La Niña to be a long-lasting and wide-spread intensifier of Australian rainfall throughout its lifecycle, particularly on extreme monthly rainfall. The reduction of rainfall during El Niño is comparatively limited; confined mainly to El Niño's developing phase and the southeast and northeast of Australia. A further complexity shows El Niño can intensify monthly rainfall during its mature phase. Within these broader impacts of ENSO are strong spatial and temporal differences, such that the expected rainfall impacts may not be consistently felt at the local-scale. We propose methods to account for these complex climatic impacts at scales comparable to a river catchment scale.

KW - precipitation

KW - Southern Oscillation

KW - teleconnection

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105026339539

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DO - 10.1029/2025GL118454

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The Extent of El Niño and La Niña Influence on Australian Rainfall

Abstract

Keywords

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