The effects of a temporary migration shock: evidence from the Arab Spring migration through Italy

This study estimates the short-term effects of migration on the employment and wages of native workers in Italy using the exogenous and temporary migration resulting from the Arab Spring. While migration does not affect native wages or overall employment, we find significant and offsetting short-term employment effects across industries. The positive employment effects are consistent with a rise in sectoral employment operating through increased demand due to immigrants. In negatively affected sectors, we estimate quarterly displacement effects of 4 natives for every 100 additional immigrants residing in a region. Both the positive and negative effects on employment tend to dissipate over time.