The effect of economic policy uncertainty on US tourism net exports

Abebe Hailemariam; Kris Ivanovski

doi:10.1177/13548166211025334

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on US tourism net exports

Abebe Hailemariam, Kris Ivanovski

Department of Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This article models the endogenously interrelated relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world industrial production (WIP), and the demand for US tourism net export (TNX) expenditures. To do so, we apply an identified structural vector autoregression model over monthly data spanning from January 1999 to October 2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in WIP has a significant positive effect on demand for TNXs. In contrast, unanticipated increases in price and EPU have a statistically significant negative effect on TNXs. Our results show that, in the long run, a one standard deviation shock in global EPU explains about 26.05% of the variations in tourism net service exports.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2219-2227
Number of pages	9
Journal	Tourism Economics
Volume	28
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166211025334
Publication status	Published - Dec 2022

Keywords

economic policy uncertainty
global industrial output
tourism
tourism service export

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10.1177/13548166211025334

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abstract = "This article models the endogenously interrelated relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world industrial production (WIP), and the demand for US tourism net export (TNX) expenditures. To do so, we apply an identified structural vector autoregression model over monthly data spanning from January 1999 to October 2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in WIP has a significant positive effect on demand for TNXs. In contrast, unanticipated increases in price and EPU have a statistically significant negative effect on TNXs. Our results show that, in the long run, a one standard deviation shock in global EPU explains about 26.05\% of the variations in tourism net service exports.",

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AB - This article models the endogenously interrelated relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world industrial production (WIP), and the demand for US tourism net export (TNX) expenditures. To do so, we apply an identified structural vector autoregression model over monthly data spanning from January 1999 to October 2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in WIP has a significant positive effect on demand for TNXs. In contrast, unanticipated increases in price and EPU have a statistically significant negative effect on TNXs. Our results show that, in the long run, a one standard deviation shock in global EPU explains about 26.05% of the variations in tourism net service exports.

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The effect of economic policy uncertainty on US tourism net exports

Abstract

Keywords

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