The cost burden of safety risk incidents on construction: a probabilistic quantification method

Maryam Alkaissy, Mehrdad Arashpour, Ron Wakefield, Reza Hosseini, Peter Gill

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)


The construction sector is vulnerable to safety risk incidents due to its dynamic nature. Although numerous research efforts and technological advancements have focused on addressing workplace injuries, most of the studies perform empirical and deterministic postimpact evaluations on construction project performance. The effective modeling of the safety risk impacts on project performance provides decisionmakers with a valuable tool toward incidents prevention and proper safety risk management. Therefore, this study collected Australian incident records from the construction industry from 2016 onwards and conducted discrete event simulation to quantitatively measure the impact of safety risk incidents on project cost performance. Moreover, this study investigated the correlation between safety risk incidents and the age of injured workers. The findings show a strong correlation between the middle-aged workforce and the severity of incidents on project cost overruns. The ex-ante, nondeterministic analysis of safety risk impacts on project performance provides insightful results that will advance safety management theory in the direction of achieving zero harm workplace environments.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2312-2326
Number of pages15
JournalRisk Analysis
Issue number10
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2022


  • Accidents analysis
  • discrete events simulation
  • occupational injury prevention
  • quantitative cost overruns modeling
  • safety risk management

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