The challenge of risk stratification in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: Clinical, genetic and imaging insights from a quaternary referral centre

Background: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the commonest genetic cardiomyopathy and may result in sudden cardiac death (SCD). Clinical risk stratification scores are utilised to estimate SCD risk and determine potential utility of a primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). Methods: Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of HCM from a quaternary HCM service were defined according to clinical characteristics, genetic profiles and cardiac imaging results. European Risk-SCD score and American Heart Association / American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC) Score were calculated. The primary outcome was cardiac arrest. Results: 380 patients with HCM were followed up for a median of 6.4 years. 18 patients (4.7%) experienced cardiac arrest, with predictive factors being younger age (37.2 vs 54.4 years, p = 0.0041), unexplained syncope (33.3% vs 9.4%, p = 0.007), non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (50.0% vs 12.7%, p < 0.0001), increased septal thickness (21.5 vs 17.5 mm, p = 0.0003), and presence of a sarcomeric gene mutation (100.0% vs 65.8%, p = 0.038). The Risk-SCD and AHA/ACC scores had poor agreement (kappa coefficient 0.38). Risk-SCD score had poor sensitivity (44.4%), classifying 55.6% of patients with cardiac arrest as low-risk but was highly specific (93.7%). AHA/ACC risk score did not discriminate between groups significantly. 20 patients (5.3%) died, with most >60-year-olds having a non-cardiac cause of death (p = 0.0223). Conclusion: This study highlights limited (38%) agreement between the Risk-SCD and AHA/ACC scores. Most cardiac arrests occurred in ostensibly low or medium-risk patients under both scores. Appropriate ICD selection remains challenging. Incorporating newer risk markers such as HCM genotyping and myocardial fibrosis quantification by cardiac MRI may assist future risk refinement.