The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China

Jun Yang, Chun Quan Ou, Yuming Guo, Li Li, Cui Guo, Ping-Yan Chen, Hua-Liang Lin, Qi-Yong Liu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

30 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Limited evidence is available on the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL). We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China. We found that hot effects appeared immediately, while cold effects were more delayed and lasted for 14 days. On average, 1 °C decrease from 25 th to 1 st percentile of temperature was associated with an increase of 31.15 (95%CI: 20.57, 41.74), 12.86 (8.05, 17.68) and 6.64 (3.68, 9.61) YLL along lag 0-14 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75 th to 99 th percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16). Effect estimates of cold and hot temperatures-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than the elderly and those with high education level, respectively. The mortality risks associated with cold and hot temperatures were greater on the elderly and persons with low education level. This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.

Original languageEnglish
Article number12250
Number of pages9
JournalScientific Reports
Volume5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 6 Aug 2015
Externally publishedYes

Cite this

Yang, Jun ; Ou, Chun Quan ; Guo, Yuming ; Li, Li ; Guo, Cui ; Chen, Ping-Yan ; Lin, Hua-Liang ; Liu, Qi-Yong. / The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China. In: Scientific Reports. 2015 ; Vol. 5.
@article{aec16f3618b244229a576719279f8202,
title = "The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China",
abstract = "Limited evidence is available on the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL). We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China. We found that hot effects appeared immediately, while cold effects were more delayed and lasted for 14 days. On average, 1 °C decrease from 25 th to 1 st percentile of temperature was associated with an increase of 31.15 (95{\%}CI: 20.57, 41.74), 12.86 (8.05, 17.68) and 6.64 (3.68, 9.61) YLL along lag 0-14 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75 th to 99 th percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16). Effect estimates of cold and hot temperatures-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than the elderly and those with high education level, respectively. The mortality risks associated with cold and hot temperatures were greater on the elderly and persons with low education level. This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.",
author = "Jun Yang and Ou, {Chun Quan} and Yuming Guo and Li Li and Cui Guo and Ping-Yan Chen and Hua-Liang Lin and Qi-Yong Liu",
year = "2015",
month = "8",
day = "6",
doi = "10.1038/srep12250",
language = "English",
volume = "5",
journal = "Scientific Reports",
issn = "2045-2322",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

}

Yang, J, Ou, CQ, Guo, Y, Li, L, Guo, C, Chen, P-Y, Lin, H-L & Liu, Q-Y 2015, 'The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China', Scientific Reports, vol. 5, 12250. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12250

The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China. / Yang, Jun; Ou, Chun Quan; Guo, Yuming; Li, Li; Guo, Cui; Chen, Ping-Yan; Lin, Hua-Liang; Liu, Qi-Yong.

In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 5, 12250, 06.08.2015.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China

AU - Yang, Jun

AU - Ou, Chun Quan

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Li, Li

AU - Guo, Cui

AU - Chen, Ping-Yan

AU - Lin, Hua-Liang

AU - Liu, Qi-Yong

PY - 2015/8/6

Y1 - 2015/8/6

N2 - Limited evidence is available on the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL). We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China. We found that hot effects appeared immediately, while cold effects were more delayed and lasted for 14 days. On average, 1 °C decrease from 25 th to 1 st percentile of temperature was associated with an increase of 31.15 (95%CI: 20.57, 41.74), 12.86 (8.05, 17.68) and 6.64 (3.68, 9.61) YLL along lag 0-14 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75 th to 99 th percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16). Effect estimates of cold and hot temperatures-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than the elderly and those with high education level, respectively. The mortality risks associated with cold and hot temperatures were greater on the elderly and persons with low education level. This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.

AB - Limited evidence is available on the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL). We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China. We found that hot effects appeared immediately, while cold effects were more delayed and lasted for 14 days. On average, 1 °C decrease from 25 th to 1 st percentile of temperature was associated with an increase of 31.15 (95%CI: 20.57, 41.74), 12.86 (8.05, 17.68) and 6.64 (3.68, 9.61) YLL along lag 0-14 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75 th to 99 th percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16). Effect estimates of cold and hot temperatures-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than the elderly and those with high education level, respectively. The mortality risks associated with cold and hot temperatures were greater on the elderly and persons with low education level. This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84938846111&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/srep12250

DO - 10.1038/srep12250

M3 - Article

VL - 5

JO - Scientific Reports

JF - Scientific Reports

SN - 2045-2322

M1 - 12250

ER -