The behaviour of US stock prices: evidence from a threshold autoregressive model

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Abstract

This paper investigates the behaviour of US stock prices using an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root. The TAR model is applied to monthly stock price (NYSE Common Stocks) data for the US for the period 1964:06 to 2003:04. Amongst our main results, we find that the US stock price is a nonlinear series that is characterized by a unit root process, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)103-108
Number of pages6
JournalMathematics and Computers in Simulation
Volume71
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 Apr 2006
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Threshold autoregressive model

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