Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios

Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Yuming Guo, Francesco Sera, Veronika Huber, Carl Friedrich Schleussner, Dann Mitchell, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Eric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Patrick G. Goodman & 29 others Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Magali Hurtado-Diaz, Julio Cruz, Xerxes Seposo, Ho Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Daniel Oudin Åström, Martina S. Ragettli, Martin Röösli, Yue Leon Guo, Chang fu Wu, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Michelle L. Bell, Tran Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Shakoor Hajat, Andy Haines, Ben Armstrong, Kristie L. Ebi, Antonio Gasparrini

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterResearchpeer-review

Abstract

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)391-402
Number of pages12
JournalClimatic Change
Volume150
Issue number3-4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2018

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Mortality
  • Projections
  • Temperature

Cite this

Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Guo, Y., Sera, F., Huber, V., Schleussner, C. F., Mitchell, D., ... Gasparrini, A. (2018). Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 150(3-4), 391-402. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria ; Guo, Yuming ; Sera, Francesco ; Huber, Veronika ; Schleussner, Carl Friedrich ; Mitchell, Dann ; Tong, Shilu ; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio ; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento ; Lavigne, Eric ; Correa, Patricia Matus ; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes ; Kan, Haidong ; Osorio, Samuel ; Kyselý, Jan ; Urban, Aleš ; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K. ; Ryti, Niilo R.I. ; Pascal, Mathilde ; Goodman, Patrick G. ; Zeka, Ariana ; Michelozzi, Paola ; Scortichini, Matteo ; Hashizume, Masahiro ; Honda, Yasushi ; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali ; Cruz, Julio ; Seposo, Xerxes ; Kim, Ho ; Tobias, Aurelio ; Íñiguez, Carmen ; Forsberg, Bertil ; Åström, Daniel Oudin ; Ragettli, Martina S. ; Röösli, Martin ; Guo, Yue Leon ; Wu, Chang fu ; Zanobetti, Antonella ; Schwartz, Joel ; Bell, Michelle L. ; Dang, Tran Ngoc ; Do Van, Dung ; Heaviside, Clare ; Vardoulakis, Sotiris ; Hajat, Shakoor ; Haines, Andy ; Armstrong, Ben ; Ebi, Kristie L. ; Gasparrini, Antonio. / Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios. In: Climatic Change. 2018 ; Vol. 150, No. 3-4. pp. 391-402.
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abstract = "The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.",
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author = "Vicedo-Cabrera, {Ana Maria} and Yuming Guo and Francesco Sera and Veronika Huber and Schleussner, {Carl Friedrich} and Dann Mitchell and Shilu Tong and Coelho, {Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio} and Saldiva, {Paulo Hilario Nascimento} and Eric Lavigne and Correa, {Patricia Matus} and Ortega, {Nicolas Valdes} and Haidong Kan and Samuel Osorio and Jan Kysel{\'y} and Aleš Urban and Jaakkola, {Jouni J.K.} and Ryti, {Niilo R.I.} and Mathilde Pascal and Goodman, {Patrick G.} and Ariana Zeka and Paola Michelozzi and Matteo Scortichini and Masahiro Hashizume and Yasushi Honda and Magali Hurtado-Diaz and Julio Cruz and Xerxes Seposo and Ho Kim and Aurelio Tobias and Carmen {\'I}{\~n}iguez and Bertil Forsberg and {\AA}str{\"o}m, {Daniel Oudin} and Ragettli, {Martina S.} and Martin R{\"o}{\"o}sli and Guo, {Yue Leon} and Wu, {Chang fu} and Antonella Zanobetti and Joel Schwartz and Bell, {Michelle L.} and Dang, {Tran Ngoc} and {Do Van}, Dung and Clare Heaviside and Sotiris Vardoulakis and Shakoor Hajat and Andy Haines and Ben Armstrong and Ebi, {Kristie L.} and Antonio Gasparrini",
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Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Guo, Y, Sera, F, Huber, V, Schleussner, CF, Mitchell, D, Tong, S, Coelho, MDSZS, Saldiva, PHN, Lavigne, E, Correa, PM, Ortega, NV, Kan, H, Osorio, S, Kyselý, J, Urban, A, Jaakkola, JJK, Ryti, NRI, Pascal, M, Goodman, PG, Zeka, A, Michelozzi, P, Scortichini, M, Hashizume, M, Honda, Y, Hurtado-Diaz, M, Cruz, J, Seposo, X, Kim, H, Tobias, A, Íñiguez, C, Forsberg, B, Åström, DO, Ragettli, MS, Röösli, M, Guo, YL, Wu, CF, Zanobetti, A, Schwartz, J, Bell, ML, Dang, TN, Do Van, D, Heaviside, C, Vardoulakis, S, Hajat, S, Haines, A, Armstrong, B, Ebi, KL & Gasparrini, A 2018, 'Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios' Climatic Change, vol. 150, no. 3-4, pp. 391-402. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3

Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios. / Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Huber, Veronika; Schleussner, Carl Friedrich; Mitchell, Dann; Tong, Shilu; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Lavigne, Eric; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.; Ryti, Niilo R.I.; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G.; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S.; Röösli, Martin; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L.; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Do Van, Dung; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gasparrini, Antonio.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 150, No. 3-4, 01.10.2018, p. 391-402.

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Sera, Francesco

AU - Huber, Veronika

AU - Schleussner, Carl Friedrich

AU - Mitchell, Dann

AU - Tong, Shilu

AU - Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio

AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - Correa, Patricia Matus

AU - Ortega, Nicolas Valdes

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Osorio, Samuel

AU - Kyselý, Jan

AU - Urban, Aleš

AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.

AU - Ryti, Niilo R.I.

AU - Pascal, Mathilde

AU - Goodman, Patrick G.

AU - Zeka, Ariana

AU - Michelozzi, Paola

AU - Scortichini, Matteo

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Hurtado-Diaz, Magali

AU - Cruz, Julio

AU - Seposo, Xerxes

AU - Kim, Ho

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - Íñiguez, Carmen

AU - Forsberg, Bertil

AU - Åström, Daniel Oudin

AU - Ragettli, Martina S.

AU - Röösli, Martin

AU - Guo, Yue Leon

AU - Wu, Chang fu

AU - Zanobetti, Antonella

AU - Schwartz, Joel

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc

AU - Do Van, Dung

AU - Heaviside, Clare

AU - Vardoulakis, Sotiris

AU - Hajat, Shakoor

AU - Haines, Andy

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Ebi, Kristie L.

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

PY - 2018/10/1

Y1 - 2018/10/1

N2 - The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

AB - The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

KW - Climate change

KW - Mortality

KW - Projections

KW - Temperature

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JO - Climatic Change

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SN - 0165-0009

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