Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios

Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Yuming Guo, Francesco Sera, Veronika Huber, Carl Friedrich Schleussner, Dann Mitchell, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Eric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Patrick G. GoodmanAriana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Magali Hurtado-Diaz, Julio Cruz, Xerxes Seposo, Ho Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Daniel Oudin Åström, Martina S. Ragettli, Martin Röösli, Yue Leon Guo, Chang fu Wu, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Michelle L. Bell, Tran Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Shakoor Hajat, Andy Haines, Ben Armstrong, Kristie L. Ebi, Antonio Gasparrini

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterResearchpeer-review

36 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)391-402
Number of pages12
JournalClimatic Change
Volume150
Issue number3-4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2018

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Mortality
  • Projections
  • Temperature

Cite this