Takeover targets and the probability of bid success: Evidence from the Australian market

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9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The excess returns earned by takeover targets raises questions of efficiency in the market for corporate control. Brown and Raymond and Samuelson and Rosenthal explain the target share pricing process as a function of the probability of success of the takeover bid. We highlight weaknesses in this work, propose an alternative model, and apply it to 245 Australian takeovers from 1980 to 1993. We find, for targets of successful bids, considerable non-convergence to the bid price. This is consistent with speculative trading models whereby the reduction in dispersion of traders' beliefs leads to the evaporation of market liquidity.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)45-65
Number of pages21
JournalInternational Review of Financial Analysis
Volume9
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2000

Cite this

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abstract = "The excess returns earned by takeover targets raises questions of efficiency in the market for corporate control. Brown and Raymond and Samuelson and Rosenthal explain the target share pricing process as a function of the probability of success of the takeover bid. We highlight weaknesses in this work, propose an alternative model, and apply it to 245 Australian takeovers from 1980 to 1993. We find, for targets of successful bids, considerable non-convergence to the bid price. This is consistent with speculative trading models whereby the reduction in dispersion of traders' beliefs leads to the evaporation of market liquidity.",
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Takeover targets and the probability of bid success: Evidence from the Australian market. / Hutson, Elaine Robyn.

In: International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol. 9, No. 1, 2000, p. 45-65.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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