Summer Midlatitude Stationary Wave Patterns Synchronize Northern Hemisphere Wildfire Occurrence

Hien X. Bui; Axel Timmermann; June Yi Lee; Eric D. Maloney; Yi Xian Li; Ji Eun Kim; Jacquelyn Shuman; Sun Seon Lee; William R. Wieder

doi:10.1029/2022GL099017

Summer Midlatitude Stationary Wave Patterns Synchronize Northern Hemisphere Wildfire Occurrence

Hien X. Bui, Axel Timmermann, June Yi Lee, Eric D. Maloney, Yi Xian Li, Ji Eun Kim, Jacquelyn Shuman, Sun Seon Lee, William R. Wieder

School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Midlatitude stationary waves are relatively persistent large-scale longitudinal variations in atmospheric circulation. Although recent case studies have suggested a close connection between stationary waves and extreme weather events, little is known about the global-scale linkage between stationary waves and wildfire activity, as well as the potential changes in this relationship in a warmer climate. Here, by analyzing the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble, we show that a zonal wavenumber 5–6 stationary wave pattern tends to synchronize wildfire occurrences across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The alternation of upper-troposphere ridges and troughs creates a hemispheric-scale spatial pattern of alternating hot/dry and cold/wet conditions, which increases or decreases wildfire occurrence, respectively. More persistent high-pressure conditions drastically increase wildfire probabilities. Even though the dynamics of these waves change little in response to anthropogenic global warming, the corresponding midlatitude wildfire variability is projected to intensify due to changes in climate background conditions.

Original language	English
Article number	e2022GL099017
Number of pages	10
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	49
Issue number	18
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099017
Publication status	Published - 28 Sept 2022

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@article{840d9f2596d648beb91dc4b515b75b4b,

title = "Summer Midlatitude Stationary Wave Patterns Synchronize Northern Hemisphere Wildfire Occurrence",

abstract = "Midlatitude stationary waves are relatively persistent large-scale longitudinal variations in atmospheric circulation. Although recent case studies have suggested a close connection between stationary waves and extreme weather events, little is known about the global-scale linkage between stationary waves and wildfire activity, as well as the potential changes in this relationship in a warmer climate. Here, by analyzing the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble, we show that a zonal wavenumber 5–6 stationary wave pattern tends to synchronize wildfire occurrences across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The alternation of upper-troposphere ridges and troughs creates a hemispheric-scale spatial pattern of alternating hot/dry and cold/wet conditions, which increases or decreases wildfire occurrence, respectively. More persistent high-pressure conditions drastically increase wildfire probabilities. Even though the dynamics of these waves change little in response to anthropogenic global warming, the corresponding midlatitude wildfire variability is projected to intensify due to changes in climate background conditions.",

author = "Bui, \{Hien X.\} and Axel Timmermann and Lee, \{June Yi\} and Maloney, \{Eric D.\} and Li, \{Yi Xian\} and Kim, \{Ji Eun\} and Jacquelyn Shuman and Lee, \{Sun Seon\} and Wieder, \{William R.\}",

note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by the Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Republic of Korea, under IBS‐R028‐D1. The data analysis and calculations were conducted on the IBS/ICCP supercomputer Aleph (with 1.43‐petaflop high‐performance Cray XC50‐LC Skylake computing system with 18,720 processor cores, 9.59‐petabyte storage, and 43‐petabyte tape archive space). H.X.B was also supported by Australian Research Council (ARC) under grant CE170100023. E.D.M was supported by the Climate and Large‐Scale Dynamics program of the National Science Foundation under grant AGS‐1841754. W.R.W is supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. We thank two anonymous reviewers for insightful comments that helped improve the manuscript. We thank all the scientists, software engineers, and administrators who contributes to the development of CESM2‐LE. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022. The Authors.",

year = "2022",

month = sep,

day = "28",

doi = "10.1029/2022GL099017",

language = "English",

volume = "49",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

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T1 - Summer Midlatitude Stationary Wave Patterns Synchronize Northern Hemisphere Wildfire Occurrence

AU - Bui, Hien X.

AU - Timmermann, Axel

AU - Lee, June Yi

AU - Maloney, Eric D.

AU - Li, Yi Xian

AU - Kim, Ji Eun

AU - Shuman, Jacquelyn

AU - Lee, Sun Seon

AU - Wieder, William R.

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by the Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Republic of Korea, under IBS‐R028‐D1. The data analysis and calculations were conducted on the IBS/ICCP supercomputer Aleph (with 1.43‐petaflop high‐performance Cray XC50‐LC Skylake computing system with 18,720 processor cores, 9.59‐petabyte storage, and 43‐petabyte tape archive space). H.X.B was also supported by Australian Research Council (ARC) under grant CE170100023. E.D.M was supported by the Climate and Large‐Scale Dynamics program of the National Science Foundation under grant AGS‐1841754. W.R.W is supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. We thank two anonymous reviewers for insightful comments that helped improve the manuscript. We thank all the scientists, software engineers, and administrators who contributes to the development of CESM2‐LE. Publisher Copyright: © 2022. The Authors.

PY - 2022/9/28

Y1 - 2022/9/28

N2 - Midlatitude stationary waves are relatively persistent large-scale longitudinal variations in atmospheric circulation. Although recent case studies have suggested a close connection between stationary waves and extreme weather events, little is known about the global-scale linkage between stationary waves and wildfire activity, as well as the potential changes in this relationship in a warmer climate. Here, by analyzing the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble, we show that a zonal wavenumber 5–6 stationary wave pattern tends to synchronize wildfire occurrences across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The alternation of upper-troposphere ridges and troughs creates a hemispheric-scale spatial pattern of alternating hot/dry and cold/wet conditions, which increases or decreases wildfire occurrence, respectively. More persistent high-pressure conditions drastically increase wildfire probabilities. Even though the dynamics of these waves change little in response to anthropogenic global warming, the corresponding midlatitude wildfire variability is projected to intensify due to changes in climate background conditions.

AB - Midlatitude stationary waves are relatively persistent large-scale longitudinal variations in atmospheric circulation. Although recent case studies have suggested a close connection between stationary waves and extreme weather events, little is known about the global-scale linkage between stationary waves and wildfire activity, as well as the potential changes in this relationship in a warmer climate. Here, by analyzing the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble, we show that a zonal wavenumber 5–6 stationary wave pattern tends to synchronize wildfire occurrences across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The alternation of upper-troposphere ridges and troughs creates a hemispheric-scale spatial pattern of alternating hot/dry and cold/wet conditions, which increases or decreases wildfire occurrence, respectively. More persistent high-pressure conditions drastically increase wildfire probabilities. Even though the dynamics of these waves change little in response to anthropogenic global warming, the corresponding midlatitude wildfire variability is projected to intensify due to changes in climate background conditions.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85139088858&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2022GL099017

DO - 10.1029/2022GL099017

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85139088858

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 49

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 18

M1 - e2022GL099017

ER -

Summer Midlatitude Stationary Wave Patterns Synchronize Northern Hemisphere Wildfire Occurrence

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ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

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Summer Midlatitude Stationary Wave Patterns Synchronize Northern Hemisphere Wildfire Occurrence

Abstract

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ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

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