Stratified response surfaces for system probabilistic evaluation of slopes

Jian Ji, Bak Kong Low

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89 Citations (Scopus)


The need for probabilistic slope analysis that takes into account the uncertainty of soil properties has been acknowledged by the geotechnical profession. traditionally, probabilistic slope analysis involves only single-mode failure that is considered based on the critical slip surface. thismay result in underestimating the failure probability. in contrast, system reliability analysis for slopes is deemedmore rational. this study aims at improving the existing methods of slope reliability analysis by considering system reliability. a stratified response surface method (stratified rsm) is proposed to describe the performance functions of possible failure modes. the proposed method differs from conventional responsesurfaceebased slope reliability analysis (which constructs a single approximate performance function) by generating a group of (stratified) response surfaces.based on these stratified response surfaces, system reliability analysis can be efficiently carried out bymeans of either a first-order reliability method (form) or monte carlo simulations. the efficient form based on the concept of a dispersion ellipsoid in the space of the original variables is used. application of the proposed approach to probabilistic assessment of slopes is illustrated by case studies, and the results obtained are compared with monte carlo simulations.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1398-1406
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2012
Externally publishedYes


  • Slope stability
  • system reliability
  • response surface method
  • FORM
  • Monte Carlo simulation

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