Stochastic generation of daily low flows in estuaries for salinity intrusion studies

Stochastic data generation technique was used to provide a probabilistic approach to a salinity intrusion/low flow study of an estuary in West Malaysia. The Kemaman River on the east coast of West Malaysia provides freshwater water supply to a rapidly developing region. The river is currently unregulated and is affected by tidal influences resulting in salinity intrusion during periods of low flow. Catchment yield analysis of this run-of-river scheme thus require assessment of the low flow characteristics of the catchment as well as the salinity intrusion behaviour of the estuary. This paper describes a probabilistic approach, involving the stochastic generation of daily low flow sequences and river estuary hydraulic modelling, adopted to examine available options to increase the security of freshwater supply from the river.