Stochastic convergence in per capita CO₂ emissions: evidence from emerging economies, 1921–2014

We employ the recently developed LM and RALS-LM unit root tests that allow for endogenously determined structural breaks to study stochastic convergence in relative per capita CO₂ emissions over the period 1921 to 2014 for a balanced panel of emerging market economies. The results provide mixed evidence of the presence of stochastic convergence. In particular, stochastic convergence is achieved for eleven out of the seventeen countries under investigation. This implies that the energy regulatory framework in these countries needs to be revaluated in order to reduce the carbon footprint. To further comprehend the factors behind the observed disparities in emission stability, we analyse the determinants of the identified groups. An examination of the determinants of the observed behaviour in relative per capita CO₂ emissions reveal that income, population, financial development and trade are significant drivers, with trade predominantly playing a larger role in emission growth. Also, weak evidence is found in terms of a catching-up effect in the growth of relative per capita CO₂ emissions.