STARIMA-based traffic prediction with time-varying lags

Peibo Duan, Guoqiang Mao, Changsheng Zhang, Shangbo Wang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperResearch

48 Citations (Scopus)


Based on the observation that the correlation between observed traffic at two measurement points or traffic stations may be time-varying, attributable to the time-varying speed which subsequently causes variations in the time required to travel between the two points, in this paper, we develop a modified Space-Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model with time-varying lags for short-Term traffic flow prediction. Particularly, the temporal lags in the modified STARIMA change with the time-varying speed at different time of the day or equivalently change with the (timevarying) time required to travel between two measurement points. Firstly, a technique is developed to evaluate the temporal lag in the STARIMA model, where the temporal lag is formulated as a function of the spatial lag (spatial distance) and the average speed. Secondly, an unsupervised classification algorithm based on ISODATA algorithm is designed to classify different time periods of the day according to the variation of the speed. The classification helps to determine the appropriate time lag to use in the STARIMA model. Finally, a STARIMAbased model with time-varying lags is developed for shortterm traffic prediction. Experimental results using real traffic data show that the developed STARIMA-based model with time-varying lags has superior accuracy compared with its counterpart developed using the traditional cross-correlation function and without employing time-varying lags.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2016 IEEE 19th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2016
EditorsDenis Wolf
Place of PublicationPiscataway NJ USA
PublisherIEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781509018895, 9781509018888
ISBN (Print)9781509018901
Publication statusPublished - 2016
Externally publishedYes
EventIEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems 2016 - Sheraton Rio Hotel & Resort, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Duration: 1 Nov 20164 Nov 2016
Conference number: 19th (Proceedings) (Website)


ConferenceIEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems 2016
Abbreviated titleITSC 2016
CityRio de Janeiro
Internet address

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