Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue epidemics, Southern Vietnam

Hoang Quoc Cuong, Nguyen Thanh Vu, Bernard Cazelles, Maciej Boni, Khoa T D Thai, Maia A Rabaa, Luong Chan Quang, Cameron P Simmons, Tran Ngoc Huu, Katherine Anders

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51 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring rural provinces in Vietnam, we analyzed a 10-year monthly time series of dengue surveillance data from southern Vietnam. The per capita incidence of dengue was lower in Ho Chi Minh City than in most rural provinces; annual epidemics occurred 1-3 months later in Ho Chi Minh City than elsewhere. The timing and the magnitude of annual epidemics were significantly more correlated in nearby districts than in remote districts, suggesting that local biological and ecologic drivers operate at a scale of 50-100 km. Dengue incidence during the dry season accounted for 63 of variability in epidemic magnitude. These findings can aid the targeting of vector-control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)945 - 953
Number of pages9
JournalEmerging Infectious Diseases
Volume19
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Cite this

Cuong, H. Q., Vu, N. T., Cazelles, B., Boni, M., Thai, K. T. D., Rabaa, M. A., Quang, L. C., Simmons, C. P., Huu, T. N., & Anders, K. (2013). Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue epidemics, Southern Vietnam. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 19(6), 945 - 953. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1906.121323