Spatial modelling of the two-party preferred vote in Australian federal elections: 2001–2016

Jeremy Forbes, Dianne Cook, Rob J. Hyndman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

We examine the relationships between electoral socio-demographic characteristics and two-party preferences in the six Australian federal elections held between 2001 and 2016. Socio-demographic information is derived from the Australian Census which occurs every 5 years. Since a census is not directly available for each election, an imputation method is employed to estimate census data for the electorates at the time of each election. This accounts for both spatial and temporal changes in electoral characteristics between censuses. To capture any spatial heterogeneity, a spatial error model is estimated for each election, which incorporates a spatially structured random effect vector. Over time, the impact of most socio-demographic characteristics that affect electoral two-party preference do not vary, with age distribution, industry of work, incomes, household mobility and relationships having strong effects in each of the six elections. Education and unemployment are among those that have varying effects. All data featured in this study have been contributed to the eechidnaR package (available on CRAN).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)168-185
Number of pages18
JournalAustralian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics
Volume62
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2020

Keywords

  • Australia
  • census
  • data science
  • eechidna
  • electorates
  • federal election
  • imputation
  • R
  • socio-demographics
  • spatial modelling

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