Spatial Analysis of Incidence of Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Its Association With Obesity and Physical Inactivity

Objectives: To investigate the spatial distribution of 10-year incidence of diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and its association with obesity and physical inactivity at a reginal level breakdown. Methods: Demographic, behavioral, medical and pharmaceutical and diagnosed T2DM incidence data were collected from a cohort of 232,064 participants who were free of diabetes at enrolment in the 45 and Up Study, conducted in the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia. We examined the geographical trend and correlation between obesity prevalence, physical inactivity rate and age-and-gender-adjusted cumulative incidence of T2DM, aggregated based on geographical regions. Result: The T2DM incidence, prevalence of obesity and physical inactivity rate at baseline were 6.32%, 20.24%, and 18.7%, respectively. The spatial variation of T2DM incidence was significant (Moran’s I=0.52; p<0.01), with the lowest incidence of 2.76% in Richmond Valley-Coastal and the highest of 12.27% in Mount Druitt. T2DM incidence was significantly correlated with the prevalence of obesity (Spearman r=0.62, p<0.001), percentage of participants having five sessions of physical activities or less per week (r=0.79, p<0.001) and percentage of participants walked to work (r=-0.44, p<0.001). The geographical variations in obesity prevalence and physical inactivity rate resembled the geographical variation in the incidence of T2DM. Conclusion: The spatial distribution of T2DM incidence is significantly associated with the geographical prevalence of obesity and physical inactivity rate. Regional campaigns advocating the importance of physical activities in response to the alarming T2DM epidemic should be promoted.