Sociodemographic and psychological factors affecting motor vehicle crashes (MVCs): a classification analysis based on the contextual-mediated model of traffic-accident involvement

The study aimed to determine the sociodemographic and psychological profiles of drivers with a history of motor vehicle crashes (MVCs), following the contextual-mediated model of crash involvement, and trying to define similarities and differences with drivers without MVCs. Although road trauma prevention has become a central public health issue, the study of psychological determinants of MVCs does not have consistent results due to methodological and theoretical weaknesses. Three-hundred and forty-five active drivers (20% females) completed an extensive office-based fitness-to-drive evaluation including measures of cognition, personality, self-reported driving-related behaviors, attitudes, as well as computerized measures of driving performance. The Classification and Regression Tree method (CART) was used to identify discriminant predictors. The classification identified several relevant predictors; the personality trait of Discostraint (as a distal context variable; cut-point: 50 T points) and motor speed (as a proximal context variable; cut-point: 64 percentile ranks). The global classification model increased approximately 3 times the probability of identifying people with a history of MVC involvement, starting from an estimated prevalence of being involved in an MVC in a period of five years in the population of active drivers. Consistent with the ‘contextual-mediated model of traffic accident involvement’, the results of the present study suggest that road trauma analysis should focus on both distal and proximal driver-related factors by paying attention to their association in determining MVCs. These results represent a valuable source of knowledge for researchers and practitioners for preventing road trauma.