Six months functional response to early psychosis intervention program best predicts outcome after three years

Background: Not all patients respond well to early interventions for their psychosis. The present study's goal was to evaluate whether patients' responses in the first six months of treatment in a specialised three-year programme could predict final outcomes. Methods: 206 early psychosis patients were assessed at baseline, using a large set of sociodemographic and clinical variables, and then monitored for 36 months. Among those variables, changes in their Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scores during the first six months were used to predict outcomes after three years. Results: Changes in GAF scores during the first six months were the only variables that predicted every symptom of functional outcome. GAF scores were also always the first or second most important predictor for every outcome. This finding held for both high- and low-functioning patients at baseline. Conclusions: Predicting poor long-term outcomes after only six months should help clinicians to improve treatments.