Short-term effects of meteorological factors on pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China

A multi-city time-series analysis

Cui Guo, Jun Yang, Yuming Guo, Qiao-Qun Ou, Shuang-Quan Shen, Chun-Quan Ou, Qi-Yong Liu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Literature shows inconsistency in meteorological effects on Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in different cities. This multi-city study aims to investigate the meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD occurrences and the potential effect modification by geographic factors. Methods: Based on daily time-series data in eight major cities in Guangdong, China during 2009-2013, mixed generalized additive models were employed to estimate city-specific meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD. Then, a random-effect multivariate meta-analysis was conducted to obtain the pooled risks and to explore heterogeneity explained by city-level factors. Results: There were a total of 400,408 pediatric HFMD cases (children aged 0-14 years old) with an annual incidence rate of 16.6 cases per 1,000 children, clustered in males and children under 3 years old. Daily average temperature was positively associated with pediatric HFMD cases with the highest pooled relative risk (RR) of 1.52 (95 % CI: 1.30-1.77) at the 95th percentile of temperature (30.5 °C) as compared to the median temperature (23.5 °C). Significant non-linear positive effects of high relative humidity were also observed with a 13 % increase (RR = 1.13, 95 % CI: 1.00-1.28) in the risk of HFMD at the 99th percentile of relative humidity (86.9 %) as compared to the median value (78 %). The effect estimates showed geographic variations among the cities which was significantly associated with city's latitude and longitude with an explained heterogeneity of 32 %. Conclusions: Daily average temperature and relative humidity had non-linear and delayed effects on pediatric HFMD and the effects varied across different cities. These findings provide important evidence for comprehensive understanding of the climatic effects on pediatric HFMD and for the authority to take targeted interventions and measures to control the occurrence and transmission of HFMD.

Original languageEnglish
Article number524
Number of pages9
JournalBMC Infectious Diseases
Volume16
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 29 Sep 2016
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • China
  • Hand, foot, and mouth disease
  • Meteorological factors
  • Mixed generalized additive model

Cite this

Guo, Cui ; Yang, Jun ; Guo, Yuming ; Ou, Qiao-Qun ; Shen, Shuang-Quan ; Ou, Chun-Quan ; Liu, Qi-Yong. / Short-term effects of meteorological factors on pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China : A multi-city time-series analysis. In: BMC Infectious Diseases. 2016 ; Vol. 16, No. 1.
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title = "Short-term effects of meteorological factors on pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: A multi-city time-series analysis",
abstract = "Background: Literature shows inconsistency in meteorological effects on Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in different cities. This multi-city study aims to investigate the meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD occurrences and the potential effect modification by geographic factors. Methods: Based on daily time-series data in eight major cities in Guangdong, China during 2009-2013, mixed generalized additive models were employed to estimate city-specific meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD. Then, a random-effect multivariate meta-analysis was conducted to obtain the pooled risks and to explore heterogeneity explained by city-level factors. Results: There were a total of 400,408 pediatric HFMD cases (children aged 0-14 years old) with an annual incidence rate of 16.6 cases per 1,000 children, clustered in males and children under 3 years old. Daily average temperature was positively associated with pediatric HFMD cases with the highest pooled relative risk (RR) of 1.52 (95 {\%} CI: 1.30-1.77) at the 95th percentile of temperature (30.5 °C) as compared to the median temperature (23.5 °C). Significant non-linear positive effects of high relative humidity were also observed with a 13 {\%} increase (RR = 1.13, 95 {\%} CI: 1.00-1.28) in the risk of HFMD at the 99th percentile of relative humidity (86.9 {\%}) as compared to the median value (78 {\%}). The effect estimates showed geographic variations among the cities which was significantly associated with city's latitude and longitude with an explained heterogeneity of 32 {\%}. Conclusions: Daily average temperature and relative humidity had non-linear and delayed effects on pediatric HFMD and the effects varied across different cities. These findings provide important evidence for comprehensive understanding of the climatic effects on pediatric HFMD and for the authority to take targeted interventions and measures to control the occurrence and transmission of HFMD.",
keywords = "China, Hand, foot, and mouth disease, Meteorological factors, Mixed generalized additive model",
author = "Cui Guo and Jun Yang and Yuming Guo and Qiao-Qun Ou and Shuang-Quan Shen and Chun-Quan Ou and Qi-Yong Liu",
year = "2016",
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Short-term effects of meteorological factors on pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China : A multi-city time-series analysis. / Guo, Cui; Yang, Jun; Guo, Yuming; Ou, Qiao-Qun; Shen, Shuang-Quan; Ou, Chun-Quan; Liu, Qi-Yong.

In: BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol. 16, No. 1, 524, 29.09.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Short-term effects of meteorological factors on pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China

T2 - A multi-city time-series analysis

AU - Guo, Cui

AU - Yang, Jun

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Ou, Qiao-Qun

AU - Shen, Shuang-Quan

AU - Ou, Chun-Quan

AU - Liu, Qi-Yong

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N2 - Background: Literature shows inconsistency in meteorological effects on Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in different cities. This multi-city study aims to investigate the meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD occurrences and the potential effect modification by geographic factors. Methods: Based on daily time-series data in eight major cities in Guangdong, China during 2009-2013, mixed generalized additive models were employed to estimate city-specific meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD. Then, a random-effect multivariate meta-analysis was conducted to obtain the pooled risks and to explore heterogeneity explained by city-level factors. Results: There were a total of 400,408 pediatric HFMD cases (children aged 0-14 years old) with an annual incidence rate of 16.6 cases per 1,000 children, clustered in males and children under 3 years old. Daily average temperature was positively associated with pediatric HFMD cases with the highest pooled relative risk (RR) of 1.52 (95 % CI: 1.30-1.77) at the 95th percentile of temperature (30.5 °C) as compared to the median temperature (23.5 °C). Significant non-linear positive effects of high relative humidity were also observed with a 13 % increase (RR = 1.13, 95 % CI: 1.00-1.28) in the risk of HFMD at the 99th percentile of relative humidity (86.9 %) as compared to the median value (78 %). The effect estimates showed geographic variations among the cities which was significantly associated with city's latitude and longitude with an explained heterogeneity of 32 %. Conclusions: Daily average temperature and relative humidity had non-linear and delayed effects on pediatric HFMD and the effects varied across different cities. These findings provide important evidence for comprehensive understanding of the climatic effects on pediatric HFMD and for the authority to take targeted interventions and measures to control the occurrence and transmission of HFMD.

AB - Background: Literature shows inconsistency in meteorological effects on Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in different cities. This multi-city study aims to investigate the meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD occurrences and the potential effect modification by geographic factors. Methods: Based on daily time-series data in eight major cities in Guangdong, China during 2009-2013, mixed generalized additive models were employed to estimate city-specific meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD. Then, a random-effect multivariate meta-analysis was conducted to obtain the pooled risks and to explore heterogeneity explained by city-level factors. Results: There were a total of 400,408 pediatric HFMD cases (children aged 0-14 years old) with an annual incidence rate of 16.6 cases per 1,000 children, clustered in males and children under 3 years old. Daily average temperature was positively associated with pediatric HFMD cases with the highest pooled relative risk (RR) of 1.52 (95 % CI: 1.30-1.77) at the 95th percentile of temperature (30.5 °C) as compared to the median temperature (23.5 °C). Significant non-linear positive effects of high relative humidity were also observed with a 13 % increase (RR = 1.13, 95 % CI: 1.00-1.28) in the risk of HFMD at the 99th percentile of relative humidity (86.9 %) as compared to the median value (78 %). The effect estimates showed geographic variations among the cities which was significantly associated with city's latitude and longitude with an explained heterogeneity of 32 %. Conclusions: Daily average temperature and relative humidity had non-linear and delayed effects on pediatric HFMD and the effects varied across different cities. These findings provide important evidence for comprehensive understanding of the climatic effects on pediatric HFMD and for the authority to take targeted interventions and measures to control the occurrence and transmission of HFMD.

KW - China

KW - Hand, foot, and mouth disease

KW - Meteorological factors

KW - Mixed generalized additive model

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U2 - 10.1186/s12879-016-1846-y

DO - 10.1186/s12879-016-1846-y

M3 - Article

VL - 16

JO - BMC Infectious Diseases

JF - BMC Infectious Diseases

SN - 1471-2334

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