TY - JOUR
T1 - Seasonality and temporal variations of tuberculosis in the North of Iran
AU - Moosazadeh, Mahmood
AU - Khanjani, Narges
AU - Bahrampour, Abbas
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - Background: Determining the temporal variations and seasonal pattern of
diseases and forecasting their incidence can help in promoting disease control
and management programs. This study was performed to determine the
seasonal variation of tuberculosis and forecast its incidence until the year 2015
in one of the northern provinces of Iran.
Materials and Methods: A longitudinal time series study was conducted. The
study interval was from March 2001 to March 2011. The sum of daily registered
cases in each month created 132 time points. The Box-Jenkins methods were
used for determining the model. The best model was selected by analyzing the
residuals and calculating the AIC and BIC.
Results: A total of 3,313 patients were diagnosed and recorded during this time.
The highest number of cases was registered in May and the difference in
monthly incidence of tuberculosis was significant (P=0.007). The incidence of
tuberculosis was higher in spring and summer than winter (P=0.04). According
to the best model which was SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 , the average incidence
of tuberculosis in 2015 is estimated to be 12 in 100,000 persons per year.
Conclusion: The results of this study showed that in the north of Iran the
incidence of tuberculosis has a cyclic pattern and the maximum incidence is in
spring (May). Also, the trend of tuberculosis incidence is increasing and needs
attention.
AB - Background: Determining the temporal variations and seasonal pattern of
diseases and forecasting their incidence can help in promoting disease control
and management programs. This study was performed to determine the
seasonal variation of tuberculosis and forecast its incidence until the year 2015
in one of the northern provinces of Iran.
Materials and Methods: A longitudinal time series study was conducted. The
study interval was from March 2001 to March 2011. The sum of daily registered
cases in each month created 132 time points. The Box-Jenkins methods were
used for determining the model. The best model was selected by analyzing the
residuals and calculating the AIC and BIC.
Results: A total of 3,313 patients were diagnosed and recorded during this time.
The highest number of cases was registered in May and the difference in
monthly incidence of tuberculosis was significant (P=0.007). The incidence of
tuberculosis was higher in spring and summer than winter (P=0.04). According
to the best model which was SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 , the average incidence
of tuberculosis in 2015 is estimated to be 12 in 100,000 persons per year.
Conclusion: The results of this study showed that in the north of Iran the
incidence of tuberculosis has a cyclic pattern and the maximum incidence is in
spring (May). Also, the trend of tuberculosis incidence is increasing and needs
attention.
UR - http://www.tanaffosjournal.ir/files_site/paperlist/r_642_140310121918.pdf
M3 - Article
VL - 12
SP - 35
EP - 41
JO - Tanaffos: journal of respiratory disease, thoracic surgery, intensive care and tubeculosis
JF - Tanaffos: journal of respiratory disease, thoracic surgery, intensive care and tubeculosis
SN - 1735-0344
IS - 4
ER -
