Responses of the Madden–Julian Oscillation to Global Warming: Impacts from Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes

Hien X. Bui; Li Yi-Xian; Wenyu Zhou; Peter Van Rensch

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0213.1

Responses of the Madden–Julian Oscillation to Global Warming: Impacts from Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes

Hien X. Bui, Li Yi-Xian, Wenyu Zhou, Peter Van Rensch

School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The impacts of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are investigated using the large-ensemble simulation from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2-LE) under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP370 scenario). Three SST change patterns are featured, distinguished by the zonal gradient of the change in the equatorial Pacific warming. MJO characteristics and its teleconnections responses are composited for the clusters, and their relationships to the zonal SST gradient changes are examined. Results show that the anomalously strong El Niño–like SST change pattern significantly intensifies the MJO amplitude and enhances its eastward extension compared to the anomalously weak El Niño–like SST change pattern. These changes in MJO amplitude are further interpreted through the a framework. We also found no statistically different extratropical geopotential height responses to MJO between the three SST warming patterns, possibly due to strong internal climate variability. Changes in Rossby wave source between clusters also show a weak relationship with the MJO teleconnections. Our results highlight the importance of Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient changes on the changes of MJO but limited impacts on MJO teleconnections to the midlatitudes.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	605-617
Number of pages	13
Journal	Journal of Climate
Volume	37
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0213.1
Publication status	Published - 15 Jan 2024

Keywords

Climate change
Climate prediction
Climate variability
Intraseasonal variability

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0213.1Licence: Unspecified

Cite this

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title = "Responses of the Madden–Julian Oscillation to Global Warming: Impacts from Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes",

abstract = "The impacts of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are investigated using the large-ensemble simulation from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2-LE) under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP370 scenario). Three SST change patterns are featured, distinguished by the zonal gradient of the change in the equatorial Pacific warming. MJO characteristics and its teleconnections responses are composited for the clusters, and their relationships to the zonal SST gradient changes are examined. Results show that the anomalously strong El Ni{\~n}o–like SST change pattern significantly intensifies the MJO amplitude and enhances its eastward extension compared to the anomalously weak El Ni{\~n}o–like SST change pattern. These changes in MJO amplitude are further interpreted through the a framework. We also found no statistically different extratropical geopotential height responses to MJO between the three SST warming patterns, possibly due to strong internal climate variability. Changes in Rossby wave source between clusters also show a weak relationship with the MJO teleconnections. Our results highlight the importance of Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient changes on the changes of MJO but limited impacts on MJO teleconnections to the midlatitudes.",

keywords = "Climate change, Climate prediction, Climate variability, Intraseasonal variability",

author = "Bui, {Hien X.} and Li Yi-Xian and Wenyu Zhou and Rensch, {Peter Van}",

note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgments. We thank Prof. Daehyun Kim and three anonymous reviewers for insightful comments that helped improve the manuscript. This work was supported by Australian Research Council under Grant CE170100023. Y.-X. L. is supported by the National Science and Technology Council in Taiwan through Grants 111-2811-M-008-062 and 112-2917-I-564-008. WZ is supported by the U.S. DOE Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Modeling and Analysis program. PvR was supported by the Australian Research Council under Grant DP200102329. The authors thank Ji-Eun Kim (ICCP) and Kimberley Reid Publisher Copyright: {\'O} 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding.",

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doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0213.1",

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T2 - Impacts from Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes

AU - Bui, Hien X.

AU - Yi-Xian, Li

AU - Zhou, Wenyu

AU - Rensch, Peter Van

N1 - Funding Information: Acknowledgments. We thank Prof. Daehyun Kim and three anonymous reviewers for insightful comments that helped improve the manuscript. This work was supported by Australian Research Council under Grant CE170100023. Y.-X. L. is supported by the National Science and Technology Council in Taiwan through Grants 111-2811-M-008-062 and 112-2917-I-564-008. WZ is supported by the U.S. DOE Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Modeling and Analysis program. PvR was supported by the Australian Research Council under Grant DP200102329. The authors thank Ji-Eun Kim (ICCP) and Kimberley Reid Publisher Copyright: Ó 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding.

PY - 2024/1/15

Y1 - 2024/1/15

N2 - The impacts of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are investigated using the large-ensemble simulation from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2-LE) under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP370 scenario). Three SST change patterns are featured, distinguished by the zonal gradient of the change in the equatorial Pacific warming. MJO characteristics and its teleconnections responses are composited for the clusters, and their relationships to the zonal SST gradient changes are examined. Results show that the anomalously strong El Niño–like SST change pattern significantly intensifies the MJO amplitude and enhances its eastward extension compared to the anomalously weak El Niño–like SST change pattern. These changes in MJO amplitude are further interpreted through the a framework. We also found no statistically different extratropical geopotential height responses to MJO between the three SST warming patterns, possibly due to strong internal climate variability. Changes in Rossby wave source between clusters also show a weak relationship with the MJO teleconnections. Our results highlight the importance of Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient changes on the changes of MJO but limited impacts on MJO teleconnections to the midlatitudes.

AB - The impacts of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes on the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are investigated using the large-ensemble simulation from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2-LE) under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP370 scenario). Three SST change patterns are featured, distinguished by the zonal gradient of the change in the equatorial Pacific warming. MJO characteristics and its teleconnections responses are composited for the clusters, and their relationships to the zonal SST gradient changes are examined. Results show that the anomalously strong El Niño–like SST change pattern significantly intensifies the MJO amplitude and enhances its eastward extension compared to the anomalously weak El Niño–like SST change pattern. These changes in MJO amplitude are further interpreted through the a framework. We also found no statistically different extratropical geopotential height responses to MJO between the three SST warming patterns, possibly due to strong internal climate variability. Changes in Rossby wave source between clusters also show a weak relationship with the MJO teleconnections. Our results highlight the importance of Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient changes on the changes of MJO but limited impacts on MJO teleconnections to the midlatitudes.

KW - Climate change

KW - Climate prediction

KW - Climate variability

KW - Intraseasonal variability

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SN - 0894-8755

VL - 37

SP - 605

EP - 617

JO - Journal of Climate

JF - Journal of Climate

IS - 2

ER -

Responses of the Madden–Julian Oscillation to Global Warming: Impacts from Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Cite this

Responses of the Madden–Julian Oscillation to Global Warming: Impacts from Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Projects

Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Cite this