Re-opening Dallas: a short-term evaluation of COVID-19 regulations and crime

We investigated the relationship between COVID-19 stay-at-home regulations and property and violent crime indexes in Dallas, TX during the first 6 months of 2020. We tested for changes in property and violent crime trends using four key “intervention” dates: the stay-at-home order issued by Judge Clay Jenkins (March 24), the start of Governor Abbott’s phase one of re-opening (May 1), a second phase of more widespread re-openings (May 18), and a third phase of increased capacity limits for businesses (June 3). Our analyses point to two main findings: (1) the time between the initial stay-at-home policy and the phase one re-opening was associated with an increase in the trend of both violent and property crime (although at lower levels than pre-pandemic); and (2) the third phase of re-opening the City of Dallas was associated with higher daily counts of property and violent crime. Our findings suggest that policy makers need to consider policies not only related to police enforcement but also allocation of other social services, particularly when such a sudden policy (e.g., stay-at-home order) is implemented.