Rainfall changes over southwestern Australia and their relationship to the southern annular mode and ENSO

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Since the 1970s, winter rainfall over coastal southwestern Australia (SWA) has decreased by 10 -20 , while summer rainfall has been increased by 40 -50 in the semiarid inland area. In this paper, a K-means algorithm is used to cluster rainfall patterns directly as opposed to the more conventional approach of clustering synoptic conditions (usually the mean sea level pressure) and inferring the associated rainfall. It is shown that the reduction in the coastal rainfall during winter is mainly due to fewer westerly fronts in June and July. The reduction in the frequency of strong fronts in June is responsible for half of the decreased rainfall in June-August (JJA), whereas the reduction in the frequency of weaker fronts in June and July accounts for a third of the total decrease. The increase in rainfall inland in December-February (DJF) is due to an increased frequency of easterly troughs in December and February. These rainfall patterns are linked to the southern annular mode (SAM) index and Southern Oscillation index (SOT). The reduction in coastal rainfall and the increase in rainfall inland are both related to the predominantly positive phase of SAM, especially when the phase of ENSO is neutral.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5801 - 5814
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume27
Issue number15
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Cite this

@article{8f734142020b4b799453901911b5a57f,
title = "Rainfall changes over southwestern Australia and their relationship to the southern annular mode and ENSO",
abstract = "Since the 1970s, winter rainfall over coastal southwestern Australia (SWA) has decreased by 10 -20 , while summer rainfall has been increased by 40 -50 in the semiarid inland area. In this paper, a K-means algorithm is used to cluster rainfall patterns directly as opposed to the more conventional approach of clustering synoptic conditions (usually the mean sea level pressure) and inferring the associated rainfall. It is shown that the reduction in the coastal rainfall during winter is mainly due to fewer westerly fronts in June and July. The reduction in the frequency of strong fronts in June is responsible for half of the decreased rainfall in June-August (JJA), whereas the reduction in the frequency of weaker fronts in June and July accounts for a third of the total decrease. The increase in rainfall inland in December-February (DJF) is due to an increased frequency of easterly troughs in December and February. These rainfall patterns are linked to the southern annular mode (SAM) index and Southern Oscillation index (SOT). The reduction in coastal rainfall and the increase in rainfall inland are both related to the predominantly positive phase of SAM, especially when the phase of ENSO is neutral.",
author = "Bhupendra Raut and Christian Jakob and Reeder, {Michael John}",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00773.1",
language = "English",
volume = "27",
pages = "5801 -- 5814",
journal = "Journal of Climate",
issn = "0894-8755",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
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}

Rainfall changes over southwestern Australia and their relationship to the southern annular mode and ENSO. / Raut, Bhupendra; Jakob, Christian; Reeder, Michael John.

In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, No. 15, 2014, p. 5801 - 5814.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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N2 - Since the 1970s, winter rainfall over coastal southwestern Australia (SWA) has decreased by 10 -20 , while summer rainfall has been increased by 40 -50 in the semiarid inland area. In this paper, a K-means algorithm is used to cluster rainfall patterns directly as opposed to the more conventional approach of clustering synoptic conditions (usually the mean sea level pressure) and inferring the associated rainfall. It is shown that the reduction in the coastal rainfall during winter is mainly due to fewer westerly fronts in June and July. The reduction in the frequency of strong fronts in June is responsible for half of the decreased rainfall in June-August (JJA), whereas the reduction in the frequency of weaker fronts in June and July accounts for a third of the total decrease. The increase in rainfall inland in December-February (DJF) is due to an increased frequency of easterly troughs in December and February. These rainfall patterns are linked to the southern annular mode (SAM) index and Southern Oscillation index (SOT). The reduction in coastal rainfall and the increase in rainfall inland are both related to the predominantly positive phase of SAM, especially when the phase of ENSO is neutral.

AB - Since the 1970s, winter rainfall over coastal southwestern Australia (SWA) has decreased by 10 -20 , while summer rainfall has been increased by 40 -50 in the semiarid inland area. In this paper, a K-means algorithm is used to cluster rainfall patterns directly as opposed to the more conventional approach of clustering synoptic conditions (usually the mean sea level pressure) and inferring the associated rainfall. It is shown that the reduction in the coastal rainfall during winter is mainly due to fewer westerly fronts in June and July. The reduction in the frequency of strong fronts in June is responsible for half of the decreased rainfall in June-August (JJA), whereas the reduction in the frequency of weaker fronts in June and July accounts for a third of the total decrease. The increase in rainfall inland in December-February (DJF) is due to an increased frequency of easterly troughs in December and February. These rainfall patterns are linked to the southern annular mode (SAM) index and Southern Oscillation index (SOT). The reduction in coastal rainfall and the increase in rainfall inland are both related to the predominantly positive phase of SAM, especially when the phase of ENSO is neutral.

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