Projecting environmental suitable areas for malaria transmission in China under climate change scenarios

Samuel Hundessa, Shanshan Li, De Li Liu, Jinpeng Guo, Yuming Guo, Wenyi Zhang, Gail Williams

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Introduction: The proportion of imported malaria cases in China has increased over recent years, and has presented challenges for the malaria elimination program in China. However, little is known about the geographic distribution and environmental suitability for malaria transmission under projected climate change scenarios. Methods: Using the MaxEnt model based on malaria presence-only records, we produced environmental suitability maps and examined the relative contribution of topographic, demographic, and environmental risk factors for P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China. Results: The MaxEnt model estimated that environmental suitability areas (ESAs) for malaria cover the central, south, southwest, east and northern regions, with a slightly wider range of ESAs extending to the northeast region for P. falciparum. There was spatial agreement between the location of imported cases and area environmentally suitable for malaria transmission. The ESAs of P. vivax and P. falciparum are projected to increase in some parts of southwest, south, central, north and northeast regions in the 2030 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s, by a greater amount for P. falciparum under the RCP8.5 scenario. Temperature and NDVI values were the most influential in defining the ESAs for P. vivax, and temperature and precipitation the most influential for P. falciparum malaria. Conclusion: This study estimated that the ESA for malaria transmission in China will increase with climate change and highlights the potential establishment of further local transmission. This model should be used to support malaria control by targeting areas where interventions on malaria transmission need to be enhanced.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)203-210
Number of pages8
JournalEnvironmental Research
Volume162
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2018

Keywords

  • Climate scenarios
  • Environmental suitable areas
  • Imported malaria
  • P. falciparum
  • P. vivax

Cite this

Hundessa, Samuel ; Li, Shanshan ; Liu, De Li ; Guo, Jinpeng ; Guo, Yuming ; Zhang, Wenyi ; Williams, Gail. / Projecting environmental suitable areas for malaria transmission in China under climate change scenarios. In: Environmental Research. 2018 ; Vol. 162. pp. 203-210.
@article{49c95f8492f24e28b2c7d46fd963b06e,
title = "Projecting environmental suitable areas for malaria transmission in China under climate change scenarios",
abstract = "Introduction: The proportion of imported malaria cases in China has increased over recent years, and has presented challenges for the malaria elimination program in China. However, little is known about the geographic distribution and environmental suitability for malaria transmission under projected climate change scenarios. Methods: Using the MaxEnt model based on malaria presence-only records, we produced environmental suitability maps and examined the relative contribution of topographic, demographic, and environmental risk factors for P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China. Results: The MaxEnt model estimated that environmental suitability areas (ESAs) for malaria cover the central, south, southwest, east and northern regions, with a slightly wider range of ESAs extending to the northeast region for P. falciparum. There was spatial agreement between the location of imported cases and area environmentally suitable for malaria transmission. The ESAs of P. vivax and P. falciparum are projected to increase in some parts of southwest, south, central, north and northeast regions in the 2030 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s, by a greater amount for P. falciparum under the RCP8.5 scenario. Temperature and NDVI values were the most influential in defining the ESAs for P. vivax, and temperature and precipitation the most influential for P. falciparum malaria. Conclusion: This study estimated that the ESA for malaria transmission in China will increase with climate change and highlights the potential establishment of further local transmission. This model should be used to support malaria control by targeting areas where interventions on malaria transmission need to be enhanced.",
keywords = "Climate scenarios, Environmental suitable areas, Imported malaria, P. falciparum, P. vivax",
author = "Samuel Hundessa and Shanshan Li and Liu, {De Li} and Jinpeng Guo and Yuming Guo and Wenyi Zhang and Gail Williams",
year = "2018",
month = "4",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.envres.2017.12.021",
language = "English",
volume = "162",
pages = "203--210",
journal = "Environmental Research",
issn = "0013-9351",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Projecting environmental suitable areas for malaria transmission in China under climate change scenarios. / Hundessa, Samuel; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Guo, Jinpeng; Guo, Yuming; Zhang, Wenyi; Williams, Gail.

In: Environmental Research, Vol. 162, 01.04.2018, p. 203-210.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Projecting environmental suitable areas for malaria transmission in China under climate change scenarios

AU - Hundessa, Samuel

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Liu, De Li

AU - Guo, Jinpeng

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Zhang, Wenyi

AU - Williams, Gail

PY - 2018/4/1

Y1 - 2018/4/1

N2 - Introduction: The proportion of imported malaria cases in China has increased over recent years, and has presented challenges for the malaria elimination program in China. However, little is known about the geographic distribution and environmental suitability for malaria transmission under projected climate change scenarios. Methods: Using the MaxEnt model based on malaria presence-only records, we produced environmental suitability maps and examined the relative contribution of topographic, demographic, and environmental risk factors for P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China. Results: The MaxEnt model estimated that environmental suitability areas (ESAs) for malaria cover the central, south, southwest, east and northern regions, with a slightly wider range of ESAs extending to the northeast region for P. falciparum. There was spatial agreement between the location of imported cases and area environmentally suitable for malaria transmission. The ESAs of P. vivax and P. falciparum are projected to increase in some parts of southwest, south, central, north and northeast regions in the 2030 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s, by a greater amount for P. falciparum under the RCP8.5 scenario. Temperature and NDVI values were the most influential in defining the ESAs for P. vivax, and temperature and precipitation the most influential for P. falciparum malaria. Conclusion: This study estimated that the ESA for malaria transmission in China will increase with climate change and highlights the potential establishment of further local transmission. This model should be used to support malaria control by targeting areas where interventions on malaria transmission need to be enhanced.

AB - Introduction: The proportion of imported malaria cases in China has increased over recent years, and has presented challenges for the malaria elimination program in China. However, little is known about the geographic distribution and environmental suitability for malaria transmission under projected climate change scenarios. Methods: Using the MaxEnt model based on malaria presence-only records, we produced environmental suitability maps and examined the relative contribution of topographic, demographic, and environmental risk factors for P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China. Results: The MaxEnt model estimated that environmental suitability areas (ESAs) for malaria cover the central, south, southwest, east and northern regions, with a slightly wider range of ESAs extending to the northeast region for P. falciparum. There was spatial agreement between the location of imported cases and area environmentally suitable for malaria transmission. The ESAs of P. vivax and P. falciparum are projected to increase in some parts of southwest, south, central, north and northeast regions in the 2030 s, 2050 s, and 2080 s, by a greater amount for P. falciparum under the RCP8.5 scenario. Temperature and NDVI values were the most influential in defining the ESAs for P. vivax, and temperature and precipitation the most influential for P. falciparum malaria. Conclusion: This study estimated that the ESA for malaria transmission in China will increase with climate change and highlights the potential establishment of further local transmission. This model should be used to support malaria control by targeting areas where interventions on malaria transmission need to be enhanced.

KW - Climate scenarios

KW - Environmental suitable areas

KW - Imported malaria

KW - P. falciparum

KW - P. vivax

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85042943875&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.envres.2017.12.021

DO - 10.1016/j.envres.2017.12.021

M3 - Article

VL - 162

SP - 203

EP - 210

JO - Environmental Research

JF - Environmental Research

SN - 0013-9351

ER -