Projected ENSO Teleconnection Changes in CMIP6

Shayne McGregor; Christophe Cassou; Yu Kosaka; Adam S. Phillips

doi:10.1029/2021GL097511

Projected ENSO Teleconnection Changes in CMIP6

Shayne McGregor, Christophe Cassou, Yu Kosaka, Adam S. Phillips

School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

35 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching impacts through atmospheric teleconnections, which make it a prominent driver of global interannual climate variability. As such, whether and how these teleconnections may change due to projected future climate change remains is a topic of high societal relevance. Here, ENSO Surface Temperature (TAS) and Precipitation (PR) teleconnections between the historical and high-emission future simulations are compared in more than 31 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find significant future (2081–2100) TAS and PR teleconnection changes over approximately 50% of teleconnected regions in December-February relative to 1950–2014. The large majority of these significant teleconnection changes suggest that an amplification of the historical teleconnections will occur, however, some regions also display a significant teleconnection dampening. Further to this, in many regions these ENSO teleconnection changes scale with the projected warming level, with higher warming leading to larger teleconnection changes.

Original language	English
Article number	e2021GL097511
Number of pages	10
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	49
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097511
Publication status	Published - 16 Jun 2022

Keywords

climate change
ENSO
projected change
teleconnection

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1029/2021GL097511Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

@article{d0ca40cbc95347158124c0e284d3996a,

title = "Projected ENSO Teleconnection Changes in CMIP6",

abstract = "The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching impacts through atmospheric teleconnections, which make it a prominent driver of global interannual climate variability. As such, whether and how these teleconnections may change due to projected future climate change remains is a topic of high societal relevance. Here, ENSO Surface Temperature (TAS) and Precipitation (PR) teleconnections between the historical and high-emission future simulations are compared in more than 31 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find significant future (2081–2100) TAS and PR teleconnection changes over approximately 50% of teleconnected regions in December-February relative to 1950–2014. The large majority of these significant teleconnection changes suggest that an amplification of the historical teleconnections will occur, however, some regions also display a significant teleconnection dampening. Further to this, in many regions these ENSO teleconnection changes scale with the projected warming level, with higher warming leading to larger teleconnection changes.",

keywords = "climate change, ENSO, projected change, teleconnection",

author = "Shayne McGregor and Christophe Cassou and Yu Kosaka and Phillips, {Adam S.}",

note = "Funding Information: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under cooperative agreement 1852977. S. McGregor was supported with funding from the Australian Government via the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. Y. Kosaka was supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (JPMXD0717935457). Open access publishing facilitated by Monash University, as part of the Wiley ‐ Monash University agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022. The Authors.",

year = "2022",

month = jun,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1029/2021GL097511",

language = "English",

volume = "49",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

issn = "0094-8276",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "11",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Projected ENSO Teleconnection Changes in CMIP6

AU - McGregor, Shayne

AU - Cassou, Christophe

AU - Kosaka, Yu

AU - Phillips, Adam S.

N1 - Funding Information: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under cooperative agreement 1852977. S. McGregor was supported with funding from the Australian Government via the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. Y. Kosaka was supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (JPMXD0717935457). Open access publishing facilitated by Monash University, as part of the Wiley ‐ Monash University agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians. Publisher Copyright: © 2022. The Authors.

PY - 2022/6/16

Y1 - 2022/6/16

N2 - The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching impacts through atmospheric teleconnections, which make it a prominent driver of global interannual climate variability. As such, whether and how these teleconnections may change due to projected future climate change remains is a topic of high societal relevance. Here, ENSO Surface Temperature (TAS) and Precipitation (PR) teleconnections between the historical and high-emission future simulations are compared in more than 31 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find significant future (2081–2100) TAS and PR teleconnection changes over approximately 50% of teleconnected regions in December-February relative to 1950–2014. The large majority of these significant teleconnection changes suggest that an amplification of the historical teleconnections will occur, however, some regions also display a significant teleconnection dampening. Further to this, in many regions these ENSO teleconnection changes scale with the projected warming level, with higher warming leading to larger teleconnection changes.

AB - The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching impacts through atmospheric teleconnections, which make it a prominent driver of global interannual climate variability. As such, whether and how these teleconnections may change due to projected future climate change remains is a topic of high societal relevance. Here, ENSO Surface Temperature (TAS) and Precipitation (PR) teleconnections between the historical and high-emission future simulations are compared in more than 31 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find significant future (2081–2100) TAS and PR teleconnection changes over approximately 50% of teleconnected regions in December-February relative to 1950–2014. The large majority of these significant teleconnection changes suggest that an amplification of the historical teleconnections will occur, however, some regions also display a significant teleconnection dampening. Further to this, in many regions these ENSO teleconnection changes scale with the projected warming level, with higher warming leading to larger teleconnection changes.

KW - climate change

KW - ENSO

KW - projected change

KW - teleconnection

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85132067825&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2021GL097511

DO - 10.1029/2021GL097511

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85132067825

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 49

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 11

M1 - e2021GL097511

ER -

Projected ENSO Teleconnection Changes in CMIP6

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Cite this

Projected ENSO Teleconnection Changes in CMIP6

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Projects

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Cite this