TY - JOUR
T1 - Prognosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis without anti-fibrotic therapy
T2 - a systematic review
AU - Khor, Yet H.
AU - Ng, Yvonne
AU - Barnes, Hayley
AU - Goh, Nicole S.L.
AU - McDonald, Christine F.
AU - Holland, Anne E.
PY - 2020/9
Y1 - 2020/9
N2 - In addition to facilitating healthcare delivery planning, reliable information about prognosis is essential for treatment decisions in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). This review aimed to evaluate the prognosis of patients with IPF without anti-fibrotic therapy. We included all cohort studies and the placebo arms of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in IPF and follow-up of ≥12 months. Two reviewers independently evaluated studies for inclusion, assessed risk of bias and extracted data. A total of 154 cohort studies and 16 RCTs were included. The pooled proportions of mortality were 0.12 (95% CI 0.09-0.14) at 1-2 years, 0.38 (95% CI 0.34-0.42) between 2-5 years, and 0.69 (95% CI 0.59-0.78) at ≥5 years. The pooled mean overall survival was 4 years (95% CI 3.7-4.6) for studies with a follow-up duration of 10 years. At <2 years, forced vital capacity and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide declined by a mean of 6.76% predicted (95% CI -8.92 -4.61) and 3% predicted (95% CI -5.14 -1.52), respectively. Although heterogeneity was high, subgroup analyses revealed lower pooled proportions of mortality at 1 year in the RCT participants (0.07 (95% CI 0.05-0.09)) versus cohort study participants (0.14 (95% CI 0.12-0.17)). This review provides comprehensive information on the prognosis of IPF, which can inform treatment discussions with patients and comparisons for future studies with new therapies.
AB - In addition to facilitating healthcare delivery planning, reliable information about prognosis is essential for treatment decisions in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). This review aimed to evaluate the prognosis of patients with IPF without anti-fibrotic therapy. We included all cohort studies and the placebo arms of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in IPF and follow-up of ≥12 months. Two reviewers independently evaluated studies for inclusion, assessed risk of bias and extracted data. A total of 154 cohort studies and 16 RCTs were included. The pooled proportions of mortality were 0.12 (95% CI 0.09-0.14) at 1-2 years, 0.38 (95% CI 0.34-0.42) between 2-5 years, and 0.69 (95% CI 0.59-0.78) at ≥5 years. The pooled mean overall survival was 4 years (95% CI 3.7-4.6) for studies with a follow-up duration of 10 years. At <2 years, forced vital capacity and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide declined by a mean of 6.76% predicted (95% CI -8.92 -4.61) and 3% predicted (95% CI -5.14 -1.52), respectively. Although heterogeneity was high, subgroup analyses revealed lower pooled proportions of mortality at 1 year in the RCT participants (0.07 (95% CI 0.05-0.09)) versus cohort study participants (0.14 (95% CI 0.12-0.17)). This review provides comprehensive information on the prognosis of IPF, which can inform treatment discussions with patients and comparisons for future studies with new therapies.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85089170030&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1183/16000617.0158-2019
DO - 10.1183/16000617.0158-2019
M3 - Review Article
C2 - 32759374
AN - SCOPUS:85089170030
SN - 0905-9180
VL - 29
JO - European Respiratory Review
JF - European Respiratory Review
IS - 157
M1 - 190158
ER -