TY - JOUR
T1 - Productivity-adjusted life years lost due to non-optimum temperatures in Brazil
T2 - A nationwide time-series study
AU - Wen, Bo
AU - Ademi, Zanfina
AU - Wu, Yao
AU - Xu, Rongbin
AU - Yu, Pei
AU - Ye, Tingting
AU - Coêlho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Li, Shanshan
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was supported by Australian Research Council ( DP210102076 ), and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council ( GNT2000581 ). BW, YW, PY, and YT were supported by China Scholarship Council [grant number 202006010043 , 202006010044 , 201906210065 , and 201906320051 ]. RX was supported by Monash Faculty of Medicine Nursing and Health Science (FMNHS) Bridging Postdoctoral Fellowships 2022 and NHMRC Center of Research Excellence, Centre for Air pollution, energy and health Research (CAR) Seed Funding. SL was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council ( GNT2009866 ). YG was supported by Career Development Fellowship ( GNT1163693 ) and Leader Fellowship ( GNT2008813 ) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council . ZA was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council ( 2012582 ). PHNS was supported by the FAPESP/Brazil . The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2023/5/15
Y1 - 2023/5/15
N2 - Non-optimal temperatures are associated with premature deaths globally. However, the evidence is limited in low- and middle-income countries, and the productivity losses due to non-optimal temperatures have not been quantified. We aimed to estimate the work-related impacts and economic losses attributable to non-optimal temperatures in Brazil. We collected daily mortality data from 510 immediate regions in Brazil during 2000 and 2019. A two-stage time-series analysis was applied to evaluate the association between non-optimum temperatures and the Productivity-Adjusted Life-Years (PALYs) lost. The temperature-PALYs association was fitted for each location in the first stage and then we applied meta-analyses to obtain the national estimations. The attributable fraction (AF) of PALY lost due to ambient temperatures and the corresponding economic costs were calculated for different subgroups of the working-age population. A total of 3,629,661 of PALYs lost were attributed to non-optimal temperatures during 2000–2019 in Brazil, corresponding to 2.90 % (95 % CI: 1.82 %, 3.95 %) of the total PALYs lost. Non-optimal temperatures have led to US$104.86 billion (95 % CI: 65.95, 142.70) of economic costs related to PALYs lost and the economic burden was more substantial in males and the population aged 15–44 years. Higher risks of extreme cold temperatures were observed in the South region in Brazil while extreme hot temperatures were observed in the Central West and Northeast regions. In conclusion, non-optimal temperatures are associated with considerable labour losses as well as economic costs in Brazil. Tailored policies and adaptation strategies should be proposed to mitigate the impacts of non-optimal temperatures on the labour supply in a changing climate.
AB - Non-optimal temperatures are associated with premature deaths globally. However, the evidence is limited in low- and middle-income countries, and the productivity losses due to non-optimal temperatures have not been quantified. We aimed to estimate the work-related impacts and economic losses attributable to non-optimal temperatures in Brazil. We collected daily mortality data from 510 immediate regions in Brazil during 2000 and 2019. A two-stage time-series analysis was applied to evaluate the association between non-optimum temperatures and the Productivity-Adjusted Life-Years (PALYs) lost. The temperature-PALYs association was fitted for each location in the first stage and then we applied meta-analyses to obtain the national estimations. The attributable fraction (AF) of PALY lost due to ambient temperatures and the corresponding economic costs were calculated for different subgroups of the working-age population. A total of 3,629,661 of PALYs lost were attributed to non-optimal temperatures during 2000–2019 in Brazil, corresponding to 2.90 % (95 % CI: 1.82 %, 3.95 %) of the total PALYs lost. Non-optimal temperatures have led to US$104.86 billion (95 % CI: 65.95, 142.70) of economic costs related to PALYs lost and the economic burden was more substantial in males and the population aged 15–44 years. Higher risks of extreme cold temperatures were observed in the South region in Brazil while extreme hot temperatures were observed in the Central West and Northeast regions. In conclusion, non-optimal temperatures are associated with considerable labour losses as well as economic costs in Brazil. Tailored policies and adaptation strategies should be proposed to mitigate the impacts of non-optimal temperatures on the labour supply in a changing climate.
KW - Economic cost
KW - Mortality
KW - Non-optimal temperature
KW - Productivity
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85148866301&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162368
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162368
M3 - Article
C2 - 36828065
AN - SCOPUS:85148866301
SN - 0048-9697
VL - 873
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
M1 - 162368
ER -