Probability or reasoning: Current thinking and realistic strategies for improved medical decisions

Yogarabindranath Swarna Nantha

Research output: Contribution to journalReview ArticleResearchpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A prescriptive model approach in decision making could help achieve better diagnostic accuracy in clinical practice through methods that are less reliant on probabilistic assessments. Various prescriptive measures aimed at regulating factors that influence heuristics and clinical reasoning could support clinical decision-making process. Clinicians could avoid time-consuming decision-making methods that require probabilistic calculations. Intuitively, they could rely on heuristics to obtain an accurate diagnosis in a given clinical setting. An extensive literature review of cognitive psychology and medical decision-making theory was performed to illustrate how heuristics could be effectively utilized in daily practice. Since physicians often rely on heuristics in realistic situations, probabilistic estimation might not be a useful tool in everyday clinical practice. Improvements in the descriptive model of decision making (heuristics) may allow for greater diagnostic accuracy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)315-321
Number of pages7
JournalKorean Journal of Family Medicine
Volume38
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Bias
  • Decision making
  • Evidence-based medicine
  • Heuristics
  • Problem solving

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