Probabilistic attenuation nowcasting for the 5G telecommunication networks

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to produce attenuation forecasts for microwave links using a probabilistic approach. It uses ensembles of forecast rainfall fields to easily derive attenuation forecasts for specific frequencies. The proposed approach uses the Short Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) to generate ensembles of high, spatial and temporal, resolution forecast rainfall fields based on observed weather radar fields with lead times of 15 to 90 minutes. Attenuation forecasts could eventually be used by telecommunication operators to drive the operation of wireless networks and ensure their maintenance during severe and extreme rainfall events. This study used 109 microwave links ranging from 15 to 40 GHz to verify the results of this probabilistic attenuation forecast. Results suggest that the STEPS-based attenuation forecasts were within the narrow span of the 90 percent confidence region for all microwave links tested up to 30-minute lead time, decreasing for longer lead times. Examples of how the proposed approach can be used to derive detailed probabilistic attenuation forecast for multiple lead times within a domain of few kilometers, as well as the probability of attenuation maps for large areas are shown.