TY - JOUR
T1 - Preparing for population ageing
T2 - estimating the cost of formal aged care in China
AU - Mi, Hong
AU - Fan, Xiaodong
AU - Lu, Bei
AU - Cai, Liming
AU - Piggott, John
PY - 2020/10
Y1 - 2020/10
N2 - China, in common with many other countries in Asia, will confront rapidly increasing demand for formal Long-term Care (LTC) over coming decades. This paper uses a unique regional monthly database on utilization of comprehensive care in Qingdao, China, to estimate transition probabilities and compute duration of care, using Markov chain simulations. Duration of care estimates are then combined with price per unit of care to calculate the total cost of care for the disabled elderly. Results show that the transition probabilities from institutional care to home care are ten times higher than those in the opposite direction; the average support duration in the plan is about 53 months, including both home and institutional care, when admitted at the age of 60, and 44 months if admitted at the age of 85, with costs ranging from RMB 40–120,000 per recipient. The cost analysis suggests that this provision model is an affordable comprehensive care model for elderly Chinese.
AB - China, in common with many other countries in Asia, will confront rapidly increasing demand for formal Long-term Care (LTC) over coming decades. This paper uses a unique regional monthly database on utilization of comprehensive care in Qingdao, China, to estimate transition probabilities and compute duration of care, using Markov chain simulations. Duration of care estimates are then combined with price per unit of care to calculate the total cost of care for the disabled elderly. Results show that the transition probabilities from institutional care to home care are ten times higher than those in the opposite direction; the average support duration in the plan is about 53 months, including both home and institutional care, when admitted at the age of 60, and 44 months if admitted at the age of 85, with costs ranging from RMB 40–120,000 per recipient. The cost analysis suggests that this provision model is an affordable comprehensive care model for elderly Chinese.
KW - China
KW - Long-term Care
KW - Markov Chain Model
KW - Mortality
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85058788534&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.12.002
DO - 10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.12.002
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85058788534
SN - 2212-828X
VL - 17
JO - The Journal of the Economics of Ageing
JF - The Journal of the Economics of Ageing
M1 - 100183
ER -