Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome

The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model

Andrea Driscoll, Elizabeth H Barnes, Stefan Blankenberg, David M. Colquhoun, David Hunt, Paul John Nestel, Ralph A H Stewart, Malcolm J West, Harvey D White, R John Simes, Andrew Tonkin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Background: Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. Methods: A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from <. 5% to >. 20%. Results: Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m2, LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I >0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%. Conclusion: Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)361-368
Number of pages8
JournalInternational Journal of Cardiology
Volume248
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2017

Keywords

  • Acute coronary heart disease
  • Biomarkers
  • Heart failure
  • Risk-prediction model

Cite this

Driscoll, Andrea ; Barnes, Elizabeth H ; Blankenberg, Stefan ; Colquhoun, David M. ; Hunt, David ; Nestel, Paul John ; Stewart, Ralph A H ; West, Malcolm J ; White, Harvey D ; Simes, R John ; Tonkin, Andrew. / Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome : The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model. In: International Journal of Cardiology. 2017 ; Vol. 248. pp. 361-368.
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abstract = "Background: Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. Methods: A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from <. 5{\%} to >. 20{\%}. Results: Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84{\%} male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8{\%}) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m2, LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I >0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23{\%}. Conclusion: Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events.",
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Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome : The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model. / Driscoll, Andrea; Barnes, Elizabeth H; Blankenberg, Stefan; Colquhoun, David M.; Hunt, David; Nestel, Paul John; Stewart, Ralph A H; West, Malcolm J; White, Harvey D; Simes, R John; Tonkin, Andrew.

In: International Journal of Cardiology, Vol. 248, 01.12.2017, p. 361-368.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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T2 - The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model

AU - Driscoll, Andrea

AU - Barnes, Elizabeth H

AU - Blankenberg, Stefan

AU - Colquhoun, David M.

AU - Hunt, David

AU - Nestel, Paul John

AU - Stewart, Ralph A H

AU - West, Malcolm J

AU - White, Harvey D

AU - Simes, R John

AU - Tonkin, Andrew

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AB - Background: Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. Methods: A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from <. 5% to >. 20%. Results: Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m2, LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I >0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%. Conclusion: Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events.

KW - Acute coronary heart disease

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