Prediction of fracture failure of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits using time-dependent reliability method with lognormal process

Guoyang Fu, Wei Yang, Wenni Deng, Chun Qing Li, Sujeeva Setunge

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for assessing fracture failures of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits. Based on newly developed models of elastic fracture toughness, the simple criterion of stress intensity factor (SIF) is used to establish the limit state functions for pipes with sharp corrosion pits in the longitudinal and circumferential directions. A stochastic model of load effect is developed and a time-dependent reliability method based on first passage probability for nonstationary lognormal processes is employed to quantify the probability of failure and predict the remaining service life. After applying the methodology to a case study, sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the most influential variables on the probability of failure. It is found in the paper that the correlation coefficient has a considerable effect on probability of failure of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits and that the larger the mode I fracture toughness is, the smaller the probability of pipe failure is.

Original languageEnglish
Article number031401
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Pressure Vessel Technology, Transactions of the ASME
Volume141
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2019

Keywords

  • first passage probability
  • pitting corrosion
  • steel pipes
  • stress intensity factor
  • surface cracks

Cite this

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title = "Prediction of fracture failure of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits using time-dependent reliability method with lognormal process",
abstract = "This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for assessing fracture failures of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits. Based on newly developed models of elastic fracture toughness, the simple criterion of stress intensity factor (SIF) is used to establish the limit state functions for pipes with sharp corrosion pits in the longitudinal and circumferential directions. A stochastic model of load effect is developed and a time-dependent reliability method based on first passage probability for nonstationary lognormal processes is employed to quantify the probability of failure and predict the remaining service life. After applying the methodology to a case study, sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the most influential variables on the probability of failure. It is found in the paper that the correlation coefficient has a considerable effect on probability of failure of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits and that the larger the mode I fracture toughness is, the smaller the probability of pipe failure is.",
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Prediction of fracture failure of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits using time-dependent reliability method with lognormal process. / Fu, Guoyang; Yang, Wei; Deng, Wenni; Li, Chun Qing; Setunge, Sujeeva.

In: Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology, Transactions of the ASME, Vol. 141, No. 3, 031401, 01.06.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prediction of fracture failure of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits using time-dependent reliability method with lognormal process

AU - Fu, Guoyang

AU - Yang, Wei

AU - Deng, Wenni

AU - Li, Chun Qing

AU - Setunge, Sujeeva

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AB - This paper presents a reliability-based methodology for assessing fracture failures of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits. Based on newly developed models of elastic fracture toughness, the simple criterion of stress intensity factor (SIF) is used to establish the limit state functions for pipes with sharp corrosion pits in the longitudinal and circumferential directions. A stochastic model of load effect is developed and a time-dependent reliability method based on first passage probability for nonstationary lognormal processes is employed to quantify the probability of failure and predict the remaining service life. After applying the methodology to a case study, sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the most influential variables on the probability of failure. It is found in the paper that the correlation coefficient has a considerable effect on probability of failure of steel pipes with sharp corrosion pits and that the larger the mode I fracture toughness is, the smaller the probability of pipe failure is.

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