Abstract
Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e0008824 |
| Number of pages | 23 |
| Journal | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue number | 7 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Jul 2021 |
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In: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol. 15, No. 7, e0008824, 07.2021.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning
AU - Cromwell, Elizabeth A.
AU - Osborne, Joshua C.P.
AU - Unnasch, Thomas R.
AU - Basáñez, Mariagloria
AU - Gass, Katherine M.
AU - Barbre, Kira A.
AU - Hill, Elex
AU - Johnson, Kimberly B.
AU - Donkers, Katie M.
AU - Shirude, Shreya
AU - Schmidt, Chris A.
AU - Adekanmbi, Victor
AU - Adetokunboh, Olatunji O.
AU - Afarideh, Mohsen
AU - Ahmadpour, Ehsan
AU - Beshir Ahmed, Muktar
AU - Yihunie Akalu, Temesgen
AU - Al-Aly, Ziyad
AU - Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour
AU - Alanzi, Turki M.
AU - Alipour, Vahid
AU - Andrei, Catalina Liliana
AU - Ansari, Fereshteh
AU - Ansha, Mustafa Geleto
AU - Anvari, Davood
AU - Yaw Appiah, Seth Christopher
AU - Arabloo, Jalal
AU - Arnold, Benjamin F.
AU - Ausloos, Marcel
AU - Ayanore, Martin Amogre
AU - Amin Baig, Atif
AU - Banach, Maciej
AU - Barac, Aleksandra
AU - Barnighausen, Till Winfried
AU - Bayati, Mohsen
AU - Bhattacharyya, Krittika
AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.
AU - Bibi, Sadia
AU - Bijani, Ali
AU - Bohlouli, Somayeh
AU - Bohluli, Mahdi
AU - Brady, Oliver J.
AU - Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi
AU - Butt, Zahid A.
AU - Carvalho, Felix
AU - Chatterjee, Souranshu
AU - Chattu, Vijay Kumar
AU - Chattu, Soosanna Kumary
AU - Cormier, Natalie Maria
AU - Dahlawi, Saad M.A.
AU - Damiani, Giovanni
AU - Daoud, Farah
AU - Darwesh, Aso Mohammad
AU - Daryani, Ahmad
AU - Deribe, Kebede
AU - Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda
AU - Diaz, Daniel
AU - Do, Hoa Thi
AU - El Sayed Zak, Maysaa
AU - El Tantawi, Maha
AU - Elemineh, Demelash Abewa
AU - Faraj, Anwar
AU - Harandi, Majid Fasihi
AU - Fatahi, Yousef
AU - Feigin, Valery L.
AU - Fernandes, Eduarda
AU - Foigt, Nataliya A.
AU - Foroutan, Masoud
AU - Franklin, Richard Charles
AU - Mohialdeen Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim
AU - Guido, Davide
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin
AU - Abdullah, Kanaan Hamagharib
AU - Hamidi, Samer
AU - Herteliu, Claudiu
AU - De Hidru, Hagos Degefa
AU - Higazi, Tarig B.
AU - Hossain, Naznin
AU - Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi
AU - Househ, Mowafa
AU - Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen
AU - Ilic, Milena D.
AU - Ilic, Irena M.
AU - Iqbal, Usman
AU - Naghibi Irvani, Seyed Sina
AU - Jha, Ravi Prakash
AU - Joukar, Farahnaz
AU - Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy
AU - Kabir, Zubair
AU - Kalankesh, Leila R.
AU - Kalhor, Rohollah
AU - Matin, Behzad Karami
AU - Karimi, Salah Eddin
AU - Kasaeian, Amir
AU - Kavetskyy, Taras
AU - Kayode, Gbenga A.
AU - Karyani, Ali Kazemi
AU - Kelbore, Abraham Getachew
AU - Keramati, Maryam
AU - Khalilov, Rovshan
AU - Khan, Ejaz Ahmad
AU - Nuruzzaman Khan, Md Nuruzzaman
AU - Khatab, Khaled
AU - Khater, Mona M.
AU - Kianipour, Neda
AU - Kibret, Kelemu Tilahun
AU - Kim, Yun Jin
AU - Kosen, Soewarta
AU - Krohn, Kris J.
AU - Kusuma, Dian
AU - Vecchia, Carlo La
AU - Lansingh Van, Charles
AU - Lee, Paul H.
AU - Legrand, Kate E.
AU - Li, Shanshan
AU - Longbottom, Joshua
AU - Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy
AU - Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy
AU - Maleki, Afshin
AU - Mamun, Abdullah A.
AU - Manafi, Ali
AU - Manafi, Navid
AU - Mansournia, Mohammad Ali
AU - Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio
AU - Mazidi, Mohsen
AU - McAlinden, Colm
AU - Meharie, Birhanu Geta
AU - Mendoza, Walter
AU - Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku
AU - Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese
AU - Mereta, Seid Tiku
AU - Mestrovic, Tomislav
AU - Miller, Ted R.
AU - Miri, Mohammad
AU - Moghadaszadeh, Masoud
AU - Hafshejani, Abdollah Mohammadian
AU - Mohammadpourhodki, Reza
AU - Mohammed, Shafiu
AU - Mohammed, Salahuddin
AU - Moradi, Masoud
AU - Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah
AU - Moraga, Paula
AU - Mosser, Jonathan F.
AU - Naderi, Mehdi
AU - Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman
AU - Naik, Gurudatta
AU - Negoi, Ionut
AU - Nguyen, Cuong Tat
AU - Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi
AU - Nguyen, Trang Huyen
AU - Nikbakhsh, Rajan
AU - Oancea, Bogdan
AU - Olagunju, Tinuke O.
AU - Olagunju, Andrew T.
AU - Bali, Ahmed Omar
AU - Onwujekwe, Obinna E.
AU - Pana, Adrian
AU - Pourjafar, Hadi
AU - Rahim, Fakher
AU - Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz
AU - Rathi, Priya
AU - Rawaf, Salman
AU - Rawaf, David Laith
AU - Rawassizadeh, Reza
AU - Resnikoff, Serge
AU - Reta, Melese Abate
AU - Rezapour, Aziz
AU - Rubagotti, Enrico
AU - Rubino, Salvatore
AU - Sadeghi, Ehsan
AU - Saghafipour, Abedin
AU - Sajadi, S. Mohammad
AU - Samy, Abdallah M.
AU - Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo
AU - Sawhney, Monika
AU - Schipp, Megan F.
AU - Shaheen, Amira A.
AU - Shaikh, Masood Ali
AU - Shamsizadeh, Morteza
AU - Sharafi, Kiomars
AU - Sheikh, Aziz
AU - Kumar Shetty, B. Suresh
AU - Shin, Jae Il
AU - Shivakumar, K. M.
AU - Simonetti, Biagio
AU - Singh, Jasvinder A.
AU - Skiadaresi, Eirini
AU - Soheili, Amin
AU - Soltani, Shahin
AU - Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth
AU - Sufiyan, Mu’Awiyyah Babale
AU - Tabuchi, Takahiro
AU - Tapak, Leili
AU - Thompson, Robert L.
AU - Thomson, Alan J.
AU - Traini, Eugenio
AU - Tran, Bach Xuan
AU - Ullah, Irfan
AU - Ullah, Saif
AU - Uneke, Chigozie Jesse
AU - Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran
AU - Uthman, Olalekan A.
AU - Melchers, Natalie V.S.Vinkeles
AU - Violante, Francesco S.
AU - Wolde, Haileab Fekadu
AU - Wonde, Tewodros Eshete
AU - Yamada, Tomohide
AU - Yaya, Sanni
AU - Yazdi Feyzabadi, Vahid
AU - Yip, Paul
AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro
AU - Yousof, Hebat Allah Salah A.
AU - Yu, Chuanhua
AU - Yu, Yong
AU - Yusefzadeh, Hasan
AU - Zaki, Leila
AU - Zaman, Sojib Bin
AU - Zamanian, Maryam
AU - Zhang, Zhi Jiang
AU - Zhang, Yunquan
AU - Ziapour, Arash
AU - Hay, Simon I.
AU - Pigott, David M.
N1 - Funding Information: This work was primarily supported by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1132415 (SIH). Financial support from theNeglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium (https://www.ntdmodelling.org/), which is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grants No. OPP1184344 and OPP1186851), and joint centre funding (grant No. MR/R015600/1) by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement which is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union (MGB). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, Public Library of Science. All rights reserved. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2021/7
Y1 - 2021/7
N2 - Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
AB - Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85112387757&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824
DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824
M3 - Article
C2 - 34319976
AN - SCOPUS:85112387757
SN - 1935-2727
VL - 15
JO - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
JF - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
IS - 7
M1 - e0008824
ER -