Predicting potential spatial distribution of Toothed Leionema (Leionema Bilobum sub sp. Serrulatum) using Weights-of-Evidence modelling with GIS

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Abstract

This paper presents a study on predicting the potential spatial distribution of Toothed Leionema (Leionema Bilobum sub sp. Serrulatum) using Weights-of-Evidence (WofE) predictive modelling with GIS. Toothed Leionema is one of four subspecies of Leionema bilobum from the Rutaceae family. It is a poorly investigated species which is considered rare in Victoria, Australia. WofE is a statistical method based on Bayesian theorem, which applies a log-linear form of Bayes’ rules and uses the prior probability distribution, calculated based on the observed presence of the modelled species, to produce a posterior probability distribution of the species. This study aims to use WofE as a tool coupled with GIS to identify key environmental factors associated with the habitat of Toothed Leionema, based on field observations and to determine the potential spatial distribution of this species in the Strzelecki Ranges, part of the Great Dividing Range, located in the West Gippsland region of Victoria. The integration of WofE with GIS allowed the distribution of the species to be predicted based on geographically referenced observation data. It involved combining a set of evidence themes representing environmental predictor variables with the known distribution of the species to generate a response theme representing the probabilities of occurrence of the species at every location. The evidence and response themes were represented as raster map layers. This research used Arc-WofE to implement WofE. The modelling results indicate that elevation, aspect, distance to water and distance to plantation areas are significant factors associated with the spatial distribution of Toothed Leionema. The model shows that areas with elevations between 336m and 555m and a dominant south-western aspect that are close to plantation areas (within 710 m), and to water (between 1000-1250m), provide potentially suitable habitat for Toothed Leionema in the region.The effectiveness and validity of the tool for predicting the likely distribution of the species for which there is little knowledge about their physiology and habitat requirements was also assessed. Both model validation with training and control sites and ground truthing suggest that the modelling results are valid and the predicted spatial distribution provides a useful indication of potentially suitable habitat for Toothed Leionema. The results not only offer some understanding of the habitat requirements of the species, but also provide a new set of data about the species for developing strategies for their conservation and management, particularly when forest plans are formulated or reviewed.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationMODSIM2015, 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation
EditorsTony Weber, Malcolm J McPhee, Robert Anderssen
Place of PublicationAustralia
PublisherModelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ)
Pages187-193
Number of pages7
ISBN (Print)9780987214355
Publication statusPublished - 2015
EventInternational Congress on Modelling and Simulation 2015: Partnering with industry and the community for innovation and impact through modelling - Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre, Broadbeach, Australia
Duration: 29 Nov 20154 Dec 2015
Conference number: 21st
https://web.archive.org/web/20150627050926/http://www.mssanz.org.au:80/modsim2015/
https://web.archive.org/web/20150626200712/http://mssanz.org.au:80/modsim2015/index.html

Conference

ConferenceInternational Congress on Modelling and Simulation 2015
Abbreviated titleMODSIM2015
CountryAustralia
CityBroadbeach
Period29/11/154/12/15
OtherThe 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015) was held at the Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre, Broadbeach, Queensland, Australia from Sunday 29 November to Friday 4 December 2015.

It was held jointly with the 23rd National Conference of the Australian Society for Operations Research and the DSTO led Defence Operations Research Symposium (DORS 2015).

The theme for this event was Partnering with industry and the community for innovation and impact through modelling.

21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation: Partnering with Industry and the Community for Innovation and Impact through Modelling, MODSIM 2015 - Held jointly with the 23rd National Conference of the Australian Society for Operations Research and the DSTO led Defence Operations Research Symposium, DORS 2015
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